England vs Iceland - Last-16 Round preview

VS

The ultimate underdog story, a nation of 323.000 people, with 10% of them in France supporting their national team that made country history in just qualifying. Iceland is a squad with very tall, strong players and this generation and next to come are enjoying an upgrade of the facilities that is start to show. They no longer are unfamiliar to controlling the ball, and they defend with all their heart, achieving an incredible qualification to the knockout stage.
 England must be happy but with suspicious of Iceland. Hodgson’s squad is the clear favorite for the game, but that also brings added pressure, built up with the average performance in the group stage, especially in the finishing side of the games.

 It’s a game where you can expect England to have the control of the ball and Iceland trying to defend and break when they can, always with few man to avoid disorganizing their backline. For England is going to be a frustrating game, much like it was against Slovakia, and the players must be focused to not let the frustration affect their game. If they can avoid it England, should, get through and book a place to face France.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

England 80%-20% Iceland

Group B analysis - Bale's dragon is awake and burning their opponents

1^st Wales (>FIL’s Prediction)

 This has been called the Euro of the Underdogs, and much of that is due to the incredible story of Wales that, led by Gareth Bale, has taken group B by storm, holding the stronger Slovakia to get a win and absolutely destroying Russia. They did lose against England but it was a very late goal, when Hodgson was in desperate search for a goal.
 They were rewarded with the group win and with Bale on form and an extraordinary team spirit, Wales are ready to continue to battle.

2^nd England (<FIL’s prediction)

 England was a bit of a letdown, mostly due to their inability to transform their dominance in the games, in chances and goals. They were only able to outscore Wales, but against both Slovakia and Russia, it felt that England could’ve and should’ve been more assertive in the last third.

 The team works better with Rooney on the pitch, for the captain to command their young teammates to better things. Eric Dier has been great in the holding midfielder position, but the attack has been too inconsistent for the English needs.

3^rd Slovakia (<FIL’s Prediction)

A bit of a hit and miss, the Slovakia squad. They were the better team in the game with Wales but were outdone by the Welsh clinical finishing and that put them under pressure for the Russia game. With 45 world class minutes from Hamsik, they virtually wrapped up their qualification, fact they confirmed with solid defensive display against England.

Hamsik, Duda and Weiss, when in a good day, can be a dangerous trio, with their speed and flair, and they can take a challenge and play in a more counter style. They will be hard to dismantle.

4^th Russia (=FIL’s Prediction)

 In a campaign to never repeat, Russia started losing some hope with the injuries of Dzagoev and Denisov, two of the main creative forces they would’ve hope to have in France. Without them, Russia was always a team that had troubles with the ball, and that meant a lot of pressure on their experienced, but past their prime, center backs. They were able to get to the last game with hope, but had a reality check, in form of a dragon.

 In the few positives, maybe the confirmation that Golovin is ready to dominate the Russian midfield for years to come and Dzyuba was fairly successful, if not supported that much.

Group B - Final round preview

How they got here

England

It was a hell of a ride, but England was in fact able to get to the last game in first place, with qualification, virtually, assured. Roy Hodgson’s squad put on two good matches, with the Russia one being more productive and against Wales the one with the happy ending. They showed good and various attacking outlets, but their defense still got them into trouble and something needs to improve for the knockouts.

Wales

Bale and his team have been great in spirit, even if sometimes they cannot unleash their attacking prowess. They almost got here in first place, but the late Sturridge goal brought them down. But after two games where they beat Slovakia and went head-to-head against England, they’ve got to believe Russia is beatable and first place possible.

Slovakia

Hamsik has been one of the highlights of the Euro, living up to the expectation of his nationals and scoring one of the goal of the tournament. On the first game, much like his team, he started well, but his fantastic run didn’t end up in goal and he couldn’t really pass that moment. But against Russia, Hamsik set the pitch on fire with a great first half that won the match for his team.

Russia

With a lot of problems, both in and out of the pitch, the Russians are still pretty much in the race for qualification, due to their fighting spirit that brought them a draw against England, that they did not deserve at all, and still allowed them to endanger Slovakia’s first ever win at a Euro.

What they need

England

They face their biggest test so far, as Slovakia is as organized as Wales and has considerably more offensive prowess. England knows that they only have to match the Wales game to not fall down to third, and a win is surely on the eyes of Hodgson, to face the knockout stage in full confidence

Wales

Everything is still open for Wales as they need to at least draw to make absolutely sure they are, at least, third. They’ve been performing fantastically and they will face a very underwhelming Russia and Coleman needs to pass the message the first place is possible and try to go for the win.

Slovakia

Depending on the other result, the draw might be enough for Slovakia against England, but it’s very unlikely that we see them content with that, and rather see the offensive force that they can be, trying to get the win and, as long as Wales doesn’t win, the first place.

Russia

It’s almost miraculous that Slutsky’s team arrives to the last game pretty much still with everything open. But they got the late goal against England and almost got the draw against Slovakia, and know they know the win against Wales, matched up with what happens in the other game, will get them, at least, a very good shout for one of the 3^rd place spots.

England vs Wales - preview

VS

- Latest events

ENGLAND

·         England suffered the bigger “punch in the stomach” with Russia’s goal just before the final whistle and they did a good game and can’t get desperate.

·         There are some major questions about how Hodgson will display his team, and if Kane keeps taking corners, after such mockery and incomprehension.   

·         They need a win, and will face an opponent that is going to want to further drown them in the table

WALES

·         Their first ever game in a Euro resulted in a fantastic win against Slovakia.

·         Chris Coleman showed all the qualities demonstrated in qualification, and with Bale active as needed, Wales can dream with bigger things.

·         Beating England would surely mean a lot, and it’s fairly predictable that they will fight for it until the end

- Areas to follow

ENGLAND

·         Defense

There wasn’t that much to fault them, even though they did concede a goal, as they had little to no trouble during the whole opening match. Against Wales they won’t have such an easy time as, though Wales expected to defend a lot, they will never fail to eye the counter  

·         Midfield

It was one of the big talking points, if Hodgson would keep faith in the diamond shaped 4-4-2 or would go back to the 4-3-3. The change back occurred and you cannot say that it’s not justified, as England did a good game and they deserved more. They did miss Wilshere and is ability to penetrate in the oppositions’ backline

·         Attack

Changing back to the 4-3-3 meant that Vardy was benched and that Kane would have to rely on himself and his wingers to create danger. The Tottenham player didn’t have the best of games, and was even one of the biggest talking points, during and after, but for the fact that he was taking corners, something that is bit out of character, really.  

             

WALES

·            Defense

It Williams commanding, Wales defended a lot and most of the times brilliantly, against Slovakia. After Bale’s goal in the beginning, Slovakia had to push forward, but all their plans were frustrated by the Welsh fighting spirit. And when they were, indeed, beaten, they stroke luck with the 2^nd goal and got the win.

·             Midfield

If Joe Ledley is able to start the game this time, after twenty great minutes vs Slovakia, Wales has a trio in him, Ramsay and Allen that knows the opponent very well, and will know how to try and cut them out. All this while pushing to help Bale up ahead.    

·             Attack

Bale is the head of the Dragon, but he started the game without his wings, the strong and winning goal scorer Robson-Kanu, that with the goal will probably start. His presence will be important to avoid England’s overloading, and Wales knows they have two players extremely motivated to score again in the competition.    

- FIL’S VERDICT

England has a tough and decisive match, where failing to win will mean they will face tougher opposition in the knockout stages. Hodgson’s squad played well against Russia, creating chances, dominating possession and just missed the win due to poor finishing and that late minute lack of concentration.
 As for Wales, it’s the perfect storm. They believe they can win their neighbors and rivals, and they know they can try and soak up the pressure, as England is the team that is really in need of the victory. Chris Coleman will likely ask his team to sit deep and try to unleash Bale in the counter, as it worked so many times recently

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

ENGLAND 1-1 WALES

DAY 2 - Wales in dreamland, England shocked.

0-1

Headlines

  ALBANIA

·         The Player – Ermir Lenjani
 
 A great game from the left wing back. Lenjani defended well, as expected of him, and was the one player that could carry the ball forward with better criteria, for Di Biasi’s team. When it was expected that Albania would be a right-sided team, Lenjani gave them a different outlet that their striker’s couldn’t capitalize.

·         The Moment – Lorik Cana’s loss of control

It’s hard to not feel sorry for Cana. He slipped, saw that Sefevoric was away on goal, and just handballed. He knew what he did, as soon as he did it, and he left his team forced to climb a mountain too high for them.
The Albanians did very well, but it felt that they needed the good version of their captain. And he failed them.

·         The Team

Conceding a goal in the first chance was the worst they could’ve asked for, but Albania was able to regroup and try to level the game. They played well, with good passing play and movement, and created some chances, but Sadiku wasn’t on his best days.
Lorik Cana was the stain in the sheet, but apart from that the fans should be proud of their team, and believe qualification is still very open.



 

  SWITZERLAND

·         The Player – Haris Seferović

 Eintracht Frankfurt’s striker was the big surprise of the starting XI, and it felt like a wasted bet from Petkovic. Seferovic had three great chances that a player like Derdyok or even Embolo, could have done better with and his physical presence was only felt in Lorik Cana’s sending off. It would be a very big surprise if we seem starting against Romania.

·         The Moment- Sommer saves the day

 The game was very near the end, and Albania had been lurking around but without real danger. Abrashi opened up Switzerland defense, and with a fantastic pass, he put Gashi straight on goal. Sommer made himself big, waited for the striker to shoot and made a wonder save that was celebrated like a goal. Decisive.

·         The Team

It was a very poor performance by Petkovic’s squad. The goal very early on determined they could play their game of waiting for the opponent to come out, but as Albania was unable too, it was up to the Swiss to keep the tempo up. They weren’t particularly interested in it, allowed their opponent to gain some confidence, and ended up risking their win.

 

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

The nervous start from Albania ended up setting up the whole tone for the match. After only five minutes, the surprise in Swiss central defense, Schar jumped ahead of Berisha for the goal. It was the dream start for Switzerland, known for their difficulties in the finishing area.

 With a goal scored so early, the game took a route that was not expected, with Albania having to attack, but as they are not used to it, we ended up having a game that Switzerland was controlling until the 37 minute. And then things had a turn for worse for Di Biasi’s team, when captain Lorik Cana did a woeful mistake, handballed and got his 2^nd yellow card. It was the end of Albania…

 Or so it would seem, but the Albanians weren’t done yet. Di Biasi found the right words to motivate his players at half time and they went forward, tried to pressure Switzerland, and were almost rewarded by it, if only Sadiku or Çikaleshi had done better with their chances.

 Switzerland had and horrible match, and can be very happy that they actually won the game, as Albania certainly deserved more from this. Petkovic knows he needs to have better showings in the next two games, if he wants to avoid any problems in qualifying. Di Biasi, on the other hand, should be happy with his players, and motivate them to try to recreate what they did against France. It will be an even harder game, but the game in Lens left some good notes.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2-1

Headlines

   WALES

·         The Player – Gareth Bale
 
 He’s ready to take his team further and further. Gareth Bale responded to the call and said “present” the first chance he got, in a beautifully taken free kick, and had a great chance with a header that the keeper barely kept out.
 Bale was the leader his team needed, always chasing the ball when not in possession, and carrying the team forward with it. The Real Madrid galatico will continue to ride his own dragon.

·         The Moment – Joe Ledley’s back!

 After having broken his leg in May, it was very surprising to see Ledley in the 23-man squad, let alone a possibility to play in the first game.
 The fairytale wasn’t quite complete with just that though, was it? With ten minutes to go, the Palace man got the ball in the midfield. He saw the blonde Ramsay and, feeling it was weird, threw a rock at him. Ramsey, like a Brazilian, took out Skertel without touching the ball, and left it to Robson-Kanu that hit it to win the game for Wales. With his shin, fooling everyone. Like it was on purpose.

·         The Team

There was a lot of surprises from Coleman. Starting with the forced one, with Hennessey having woken up with a back spasm that took him out of contention. King not being started was a surprise, and Williams a bigger one, but understandable, as it freed Bale to be the danger that he is.
Coleman’s team did a great job in Bordeaux, in control during most of the match, and only shaken by Duda’s goal.


 

   SLOVAKIA

·         The Player – Juraj Kucka

After a good season at AC Milan – team that, admittedly, isn’t what they used to be – Juraj Kucka was expected to be the protector of Marek Hamsik, the player that would help carry the team forward. Instead, Kucka (or Kuco) was off it, barely having possession, and more interested in arguing the referee’s decision. Very underwhelming.

·         The Moment- Hamsik’s run ends in nothing.

 It set the tone for a frustrating game for Slovakia. Hamsik got the ball from a welsh player, made a great run, avoiding red shirts like Maradona, and just Ward between him and goal, he made the shot. He was starting to celebrate when Ben Davies stopped the joy. And the game just went downhill

·         The Team

Very disappointing performance from Slovakia. Duris was started instead of Duda, and he was left to fight against three center backs, in an impossible mission. Hamsik was affected by the chance in the beginning, Weiss was horrendous and Mak irregular.

 Jan Kozák will have a lot to think about, because the display had very few positives. Those would have to be Duda’s goal and the reaction after it, but all the rest was just poor.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Chris Coleman surprised everyone with Williams, but he showed to be the right decision as he would be the most similar player to Robson-Kanu, that was available to start.

The game started very nervous, with both teams feeling the environment, and Hamsik had a glorious chance to start the Euro with a goal, but Ben Davies made an impressive sliding tackle to avoid that. And ten minutes in, Gareth Bale had a free kick from 30 yards and he hit it perfectly. The keeper could’ve done better, but the shot had all the Welsh’s power in it and the goal shook Slovakia that disappeared from the game until half time.

 Bale had a great chance to score the second, but he was denied by a brilliant save from Kozacik, with Wales keeping the pressure and always seeming nearer the goal. So, it was completely out of nowhere that Mak was able to find Duda and the wonderkid, coolly, slotted it away.

Finally Slovakia had momentum, but it only lasted until Coleman brought on Ledley and Robson-Kanu. Not only this two were the ends of the goal (with the brilliant Ramsay signature) but Ledley got control of the midfield back with ease from Kucka and Hamsik, being determinant for the win.

 Wales surprised with their positive, going forward attitude, caught Slovakia off guard, and are rewarded with top of the group until the second matchday. And with the win, at least 3^rd position seems fairly certain. Slovakia was woeful and will have to turn things completely around if they want to succeed.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     1-1

Headlines

   ENGLAND

·         The Player – Wayne Rooney

Playing further back than usual, for England, Wayne Rooney showed he’s ready to finish the transition to a midfielder for the latter part of his career. Commanding his team, he was untiring in defensive matters and had a couple of chances to score himself. Very unselfish in letting Dier take the free kick for the goal.
 
 

·         The Moment – Kane is taking corners?!

It wasn’t the first time, but before you would’ve thought it was just a friendly game thing. But apparently Kane is now the corner taker for England. He’s a decent crosser and everything, but it’s weird that Hodgson is willing to give up of having his striker in the box for the corners…

·         The Team

 Roy Hodgson shuffled the cards just before the game, and dealt us the 4-3-3 that he seemed to have abandoned. Vardy and Wilshere were then replaced by Lallana and Sterling, and England did a good game. They pressured immensely, they created enough chances to have the game won by the 70’ minute. But the lost concentration in extra-time and wasted two points. Heartbreaking.



 

   RUSSIA

·         The Player – Aleksandr Kokorin

 When Russia was able to carry the ball to the offensive end, Kokorin was always involved. Appearing left, right and center, the Zenit forward was a trouble maker that need more help from Smolov to be effective.

·         The Moment- Oh look!! We’ve scored

It was the most unlikely thing to happen. Russia had zero chances throughout the whole game and two minutes after the regular time, Berezutski was ahead from a corner and headed a cross over Joe Hart, straight into a goal.

·         The Team

It was a robbing in Marseille, protagonized by Slutsky’s team. Adding a solid defensive show, England’s lack of composure, and a late goal out of nowhere, Russia got a great result that should give them some confidence for the rest of the games.
 It’s certain that the exhibition was extremely poor, with very few moments to remember, but the point, that’s in the history books.

.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Both managers decided to try and surprise us, with Hodgson going further changing all the system, while Slutsky deployed Neudstader for the first time in the midfield.

 England started strongly and controlled the game, creating chances from the right side, with Walker having a great showing, always bombing forward, and Lallana fluffing a couple of shots. Russia tried their best to hold England, and they did a good job at it, with Golovin and Neudstader forming an unlikely pairing that had troubles, but survived.

 Russia was never a threat offensively and England made the most of it, but they lacked the punch to put a certain victory in the bag. There was always that last pass, the touch or the shot, something was always off.

 It seemed everything was okay, when Dier powered a free kick into Akinfeev’s net. Russia never seemed dangerous anyway, and England still felt the team more comfortable with the ball so things were going well. Only to have everything ruined by the header of Berezutski.

Both teams have hopes and worries to take from this game. England will have a crucial game against Wales, needing to win it, and Russia knows that the exhibition against Slovakia can only be better. 

England vs Russia - preview

VS

- Latest events

ENGLAND

·         Every ten years you look at England’s team and you feel that they can go all the way to the final. It’s the same now, after Euro 96 and World Cup ’06, where a young generation seems ready to the guide their country to glory.

·         The friendlies Hodgson’s team did were okay but nothing superb, with three narrow wins where it felt that England could’ve done more with creativity. Especially against Portugal, where the Three Lions played with an extra player for an hour and created little to no danger until Smalling’s header right at the end.  

·         Sterling was the source of danger in that game, but it’s expected that Roy Hodgson keeps the trio of Rooney-Vardy-Kane with the captain playing behind the best goalscorers of the Premier League. Stones showed some weaknesses so Cahill and his experience are going to be called into action.

RUSSIA

·         Dzagoev got injured just days before the final squad announcement. Then, in the last game of preparation, Denisov algo suffered a knock that will rule him out of the Euro.  A lot of troubles to an already shaken Russia, makes this team one of the big question marks of the competition.

·         Slutsky treid three man upfront, but it’s very doubtful he’ll try the same tactic against England, as it’s a very offensive system and it leaves exposed its back line. 

·         It’s hard to expect anything coming from Russia, but they are an experienced side that can cause upsets in a good day. And all this doubts around their team might work in their favor, as new names can start to shine.

- Expected Lineups

VS

- Areas to follow

ENGLAND

·         Defense

Nathaniel Clyne is confirmed to be out for the game against Russia, killing off any doubt the left-back position, that’ll be Danny Rose’s. Stones didn’t show all his qualities in the friendlies, and Hodgson is going to repeat the duo of Smalling and Cahill. Concentration and aerial capacity will be what’s required from the English backline, as they won’t be much disturbed.

·         Midfield

Wilshere was out for most of the year for Arsenal, but he’s absolutely essential for Hodgson’s system to work, as shown by the game England won against Portugal. Milner doesn’t have the creativity and the transport of the ball necessary to create disequilibrium’s from the back. Alli and Dier are young and want to show their skills, and Alli is set to have a great competition. Rooney will swap between the midfield and the attack.

·         Attack

It’s been a while since Hodgson and English managers, had two “20+ goals in the league”. Kane and Vardy had a fantastic season, with the Leicester man with the obvious advantage of the medal he has. But Kane is a wonderkid, a striker that is perfectly capable of creating play, which will connect well with Rooney, sitting a bit behind timing his runs. If this three learn how to work together, England can be a force to be reckoned.

             

RUSSIA

•             Defense
  
  It’s been the same names for over ten years. While that might be good, as they are experienced and know each other, in a competition like this, you have got to feel that the players are too slow and unreliable to be successful. Ignashevich and Berezutski were two great center backs, back in the day, but their age makes them a delicious pray for Kane, Vardy and co. .

•              Midfield
  
  The injuries of Dzagoev and Denisov limited Russia’s chances and Slutsky options. It’s very hard, without access to all the information, to predict which way the CSKA manager will go for this game. Being against England, and having tested a trio in the attack in the friendlies, we expect that Russia will use a 4-2-3-1, with Golovin having a chance as a box-to-box, Kokorin in a more of a shadow striker role. Shatov seems assured, and the left wing is a complete question mark.   

•              Attack
  
  Dzyuba has been on form, and he will be the spearhead of the attack. Kokorin will play away from him, but always looking to close the distance, so he can introduce himself in the area that he loves. Losing Denisov means losing a great finisher, and Russia will surely miss him, and will likely struggle against England.   

- FIL’S VERDICT

 England won all games and, even though the performance against Portugal was a underwhelming, that has motivated the Three Lions that will face a weakened and veteran Russia. Slutsky will try and surprise Hodgson, and he knows how the English manager will use his squad, so with their experience and tenacity, if Russia starts the game well, they might have a chance to bother.

 England will also start strong, trying to get an early goal to open up the Russian side, and with the firepower that Rooney, Kane and Vardy offer, with service from Wilshere and Alli it feels that the English will confirm they are the favorites and win their first game.

 With both defenses being known by fatal lacks of concentration, expect that both teams will be able to score a goal and making this an entertaining match. And maybe Slutsky has a completely different idea for this game…

FIL’S PREDICTION

ENGLAND 3-1 RUSSIA