Final Euro 2016 - Portugal

What a ride it has been for Ronaldo’s team, in France. As always, Portugal arrived at the competition as an outsider to get to the latter stages, mostly due to the fact that they have in their ranks one of the best players ever, but their group stage was very underwhelming, with all game ending up in draws, and a qualification as a 3^rd best placed seemed to predict hard times for Fernando Santos’ squad.
 In the knockout stages, Santos has been employing a result-minded strategy, ignoring the critics that bash this as “negative football”, stating he much rather win the games, even if it’s not in the beautiful way. And the fact is, making the best of their side of the draw, Portugal got the 2^nd final in their history, first away from home and they’ll want to do to France what Greece did to them.

Strengths

·         He is best player in the world, obsessed in the need of being the best ever, Ronaldo looked like he was feeling the pressure to perform in the group stages, making the right movements, but only making what he does best against Hungary, in the last push for a very hard-fought qualification. In the knockouts he seemed a bit looser and his form is rising, with the game against Wales being the match where Ronaldo showed more of himself. More than anyone, the Real Madrid superstar will want to get his hand on the trophy, and he’ll have to be on form to achieve an historic title that will catapult him to Best Ever status.

·         One of the reasons Portugal has been sucessuful in France is the great moment of form that Pepe presented in the competition. The Real Madrid problematic defender has been a true leader in the Portuguese team, fact much more noticeable if you think that he only arrived in the country with 17 years old. With his pace and anticipation, Pepe is also one that can bring his team forward, with long passes or carrying the ball himself, but today he’ll have to choose the moment of going forward as France will make him pay if space is left in behind.

·         In a competition where the routines are hard to come by, it took three games, but eventually Fernando Santos succumbed to the pressure of deploying the trio of William, Adrien and João Mário, players that have been playing together for 2 years, and successfully. William and Adrien will have another big mission in stopping the main dangers from opponents, as they did with Modric/Rakitic, Milik/Krychowiak, and now will try to stop Griezmann/Pogba, the two most dangerous French men.

Weaknesses

·         Renato Sanches has clearly been the biggest Breakout Star of the Euros in France. After a great starting season at Benfica, that was rewarded with a multi-millionaire transfer to Bayern Munich, everyone was very curious to see how well the 18 year old would play in a bigger stage, and the wonderkid did not disappoint. He’s composed, strong, is not afraid to charge against the defender and has a very positive energy bringing Portugal forward in a different way than they were used too, potentiating a more counter-attacking style.
 The main concern with Renato Sanches is decision making in pass, that was an issue against Wales, and that France is more suited to make pay if they repeat themselves. But if he has options, he’ll carry the ball to the feet of a teammate, minoring the risks of a break on his defense.

·         Cédric Soares and Raphael Guerreiro have been the more consistent full backs for Portugal, with the left side player in a particular good moment of form that he will want to carry to his new adventure in Dortmund. For this final, though, both will have a very demanding game, as it will be required as much presence in the defensive as the offensive process. With João Mário and Renato Sanches’ tendencies to cut inside, there will be space in behind Evra/Sagna, but the young Portuguese defenders will have to time their runs well, to maintain the back line whole.  

·         The biggest debate in the Portugal’s starting XI is Danilo vs William. Not only because they are two good players, but because they bring very different aspects to Portugal’s game, it’s a decision that will probably will hugely influence the outcome of the final. If Santos opts for Danilo he will gain a holding midfielder that is a great recover of the ball, is ready for a tackle, but has trouble of getting possession clean out of their feet. William Carvalho looks better suited to deal with Paul Pogba that with Antoine Griezmann, but it will be the Atletico Madrid player that will be in his area, and the pace of the top goalscorer of the competition might put him into trouble, but if he can impose himself he can a be a great outlet to exploit the French space in the wide areas.

How they will approach the Final

Fernando Santos has a dream, and that is to win the Euro 2016. Ronaldo wants to win so badly he was missing goals he doesn’t usually miss, but he got his confidence back against Hungary and is ready for the last hurdle.
 It’s expected that Portugal will stick with the tactic that brought them here, in a sea of critics and shouts against their merit to reach the final, as the success they had speaks for them. For the game with France Santos will bring back Pepe and, probably, William, and then he might tweak the full back position to avoid the danger of Sissoko on the right. Certain is that Portugal will gladly give control of possession to France, as they have in the whole competition, and try to break on the hosts with the pace of Ronaldo, Nani, Sanches and others, all glued together by a very tough midfield duo of William and Adrien.

 The game against Wales was not the norm of the tournament, as it was the one where Portugal went into it as the slight favorite but they never were caught off position, rather maintain the defensive line, and they will be happy to give all the favoritism to France, sit back, and try to break quickly. It has worked so far, but they haven’t face an opponent as strong as the French yet, as everyone seems to think they will finally break. 

Euro 2016 Final - France

The hosts have been in an ascending curve in terms of form in the Euros, culminating that with an historic win against Germany, a match that they had not won in more than 50 years. It was almost back against the wall at some stages of the match, with the Germans clearly missing the presence in Lloris area, in the shape of Mario Gómez, as Muller was clearly out-of-form in France.
 Griezmann was the player that had the chances to take advantage of the Germans defensive mistakes, improving his tally to 6 in the competition, and taking France to another final as hosts, after 1984 and 1998. They won those two, will they be able to repeat the feat?

Strengths

·         Arguably the best player of the tournament, award he will mostly likely get if France wins the title, Griezmann had a terrific season in Atlético Madrid, but the penalty he missed in the Champions League final seemed to undermine his confidence, as he only showed a little glimpse of what he can do in the group stage, with a goal against Albania. But when things got serious Griezmann showed his quality in finding spaces with his pace to score goals, lots of goals. 6 in total and two against the Germans, that give the French with Portuguese ancestry the whole confidence in the world. 

·         Giroud has a very physical presence in the box, and has a good matchup in Pepe, as the Portuguese centre back has the tendency of coming forward and leaving some spaces behind him in the box. If he has the space, the Arsenal striker can impose his good heading ability, either through open play or a set piece, and be a difference maker.

·         With or without Kanté, France’s major strength is their midfielders’ ability to press and recover possession quickly and going forward with pace and strength, with the likes of Payet and Pogba more as the creativity outlets, and Sissoko a powerful and strong runner on the right side, will put Portugal’s back line under pressure. Matuidi will be required to have more defensive worries, but his tendency to attack through the left side might be a way for Portugal to try and counter.

Weaknesses

·         With the suspension of N’Golo Kanté for the game against Iceland, Deschamps started Moussa Sissoko and the team responded well in the attacking part of the game, always bombing forward with six players. That resulted in a great first half, where destroyed Iceland, but in the other two halves they played together, the midfield formed from Pogba and Matuidi seemed a little too unprotected, especially against Germany. With Kanté on the pitch, Matuidi and, especially, Paul Pogba have the freedom to go forward, knowing the Leicester man will be in their backs in case anything goes wrong in possession. 

·         The centre backs have been one of the major concerns for Didier Deschamps, as he saw the pair he was going to use in the competition (Varane-Mathieu), ruled out because of injuries. Koscielny has been the leader in the back, with Umititi gaining the spot over Rami, but with either partner it feels like France is shaky in the back, especially in the centre, making Evra and Sagna come inside leaving space in the wings for the opposition full backs to adventure.

·         That lack of defensive awareness of the French is especially noticeable in defensive set pieces. Deschamps sets his team up in zonal marking, no players in the second post and Giroud in charge of being the first defender in position to clear the ball, but his lack of knowledge in the defensive process makes France liable when defending corners and free kicks in wide areas.

How they will approach the Final

 There is no reason to believe that Deschamps will make any changes to his starting eleven for the final in Saint-Denis. It was the same group of players that Deschamps chose to start the game against Iceland and with great success, with a perfect first half. In those forty five minutes, France destroyed the Icelandic dream, pressuring high up in the pitch and overrunning the Vikings that, this time, couldn’t respond.
 Against Germany, though, the game wasn’t easy in the first half, where it Low’s team showed that they missed the quality and presence of Mario Gómez, as it was around the box that things stopped working. And the penalty came out of nowhere to lift France’s morale, and destroy the Germans. But if the semi-final taught us anything, is that the trio of Pogba, Matuidi and Sissoko get caught in the offensive transition, and leave too much space between themselves and the defensive line. With players like Ronaldo, Nani, Renato Sanches and João Mário, players that are always trying to find those pockets of space, Deschamps must decide if Kanté needs to be on the pitch from the beginning, or if he’s going for an early advantage and then try to manage the score-line. The second option seems more likely, but it’s a risky move against an organized, and counter-attack minded Portugal. 

Germany vs Italy - Quarter-final preview

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Germany

 The world champions took a while to start performing to their standard, but when the competition hit the knockout stage, they faced Slovakia – a team that beat them in May – the Germans didn’t flinch and applied their common demolition job, destroying Hamsik and co.’s hopes.

 It hasn’t the been the most glamourous of showings for Joachim Low’s team, with their performances lacking some punch in the group stage, mostly due to the insistence to have Mario Gotze in the striker role. When Low opted to go for Gómez everything started clicking better, and Germany seemed much more like their usual self, and they will need to step up, as they have the hard way to Paris side of the draw.

Italy

 They arrived in France very quietly, facing incredible disbelief and indifference from their own country, with statements like “Worst squad ever” being regularly heard, and with very little hopes of making truth to the name of Italy, especially facing a very tough group and starting against the young and powerful Belgium.
 If there’s something that the Chelsea fans will soon love about Antonio Conte is that he will take all the criticism with a smile and then keep on going with what he believes and, normally, with great results.
 Just look at their opening game in the Euro, against Belgium, where they were expected to have to hold off Wilmots’ team, and ended up dominating the match to gain control of the group. Destiny brought them the task of facing reigining champions Spain, and Italy showed us they are ready to try and go all the way, finishing once and for all the Spanish Era.  

The game

Germany has never won a match against Italy in a big competition. You might think “But that surely happens a lot, as teams don’t face off that often”, and while that’s true, this are two of the greatest Football nations, that always have been contenders, and have played 8 matches, with 4 Italy wins and 4 draws. Lotthar Matthaus admitted that one of the few Germany weaknesses comes when they see they have to face Italy.
 And what Italy they have to face. An Italy that doesn’t have the class of Baggio, Pirlo, Riva, Paolo Rossi, Maldini and many, many others, but what they have is their own BBC. Barzagli, Bonnuci and Chielini play together in Juventus in the back 3 that Conte brought with the Vecchia Signora and they give a tough time to the opponents’ offense. And if they can’t stop them, there’s always Buffon.
 This has all the possibilities of being one of the games of the tournament. Certainly one of the more decisive as one of the best contenders to the title will go home earlier. Low knows this is one of the biggest test he faces in his spell, and if he can break the curse against Italy, then Germany surely won’t stop until they grab the silverware. As for Conte’s squad, they wowed the world with the fantastic game they had against Spain, where they vulgarized Del Bosque and his team. With two very different styles, expect a high-quality, intense match. 

Wales vs Belgium - Quarter-final preview

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Wales

The dream is still alive for the United Kingdom to have representation in the final, but it has been Coleman’s Dragons that have been making the positive headlines, after England’s meltdown against the volcanic Iceland. Bale and his teammates have been brilliant so far in France, topping their group with two incredible wins against Slovakia and Russia, and being defeated in the end of the England’s match.

 This Wales team created a very solid team spirit that doesn’t allow egos, and the mega-star that is Gareth Bale has the same responsibilities as anybody else in terms of commitment and sacrifice for the team. They feel much more comfortable when they give away possession to their opponent and try to break on them, with long balls for the pace of the Real Madrid winger, Robson-Kanu or Ramsay. If they have to take control of the game, they are a bit out of their shape, as proven by the scrappy win against Nor. Ireland. But they got it, and can continue to make history if they can repeat the results they had against Belgium in qualification.

Belgium

 Belgium was seen as one possible dark horse for the competition, mostly due to the deth in quality that their squad has. It’s actually quite remarkable, when you look at the names that Wilmots has at his disposal, that they haven’t really went on to bigger things yet.

 It looked like this could another big disappointment to the Red Devils, with the loss and lack of chances created against Italy. A game that ensured the pressure was on Belgium for the rest of the group matches, pressure that brought out the best of the offensive threat that Hazard, De Bruyne, Mertens and Lukaku provide. Ireland and Sweden were dispatched, and in the last-16 they faced the highly motivated, but out of their area Hungary, that was dismantled when they were trying to get back into the match. It was a solid display, but with the scoreline not reflecting the game play, as Hungary had their chances.

The game

It has all the ingredients to be yet another upset in the Euros, the second quarter-final match. The surprising Wales face off with a Belgium team that, since they lost with Italy, has been very prolific in attack, but still seems a bit shaky in defense.

 Both teams know each other pretty well, as they were also opponents in qualification, and Wales had the upper hand in the H-2-H, being able to nullify the Belgium force, and capitalizing on their disorganized defensive line to win the game in Cardiff. Expect the game play to develop like in those two games, with Belgium trying to break Wales defense, and the Welsh unleashing quick counters with Bale and Robson-Kanu/Vokes as their pacey targets.

Belgium will have a very similar game to the one they had against Ireland, but this time their opponents are more organized in the back and have a world class player in the front. So, if you want to compare Wales with Italy, it wouldn’t be unthinkable. Certain is that Belgium is under pressure and anything but a win will be a massive failure and for Coleman’s squad being in the quarter-final is, surely, more than they ever dreamt. And they know they can beat Belgium, and will fight to get another piece of history in Lille. 

Poland vs Portugal - Quarter-Final preview

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Poland

 Lewandowski and Milik suffered heavy knocks in the epic battle against Switzerland, and they were considerably out of their best game in that game. While they were fit, Poland dominated their opponent, created chances, and could’ve scored more goals in a first half that showed us what Nawalka team can be. A force in the front, very hard to stop with their power and speed in the wings, provided by Grosicki and Blaszczykowski and that still hasn’t been fully awaken, as Lewandowski still hasn’t started his goal tally.
 To counter-balance the lack of offensive prowess, Nawalka was able to solidify the Polish’s defensive quality, a problem that had limited them in the pass. But with Krychowiak just ahead of the strong duo of Glik and Pazdan, it’s hard to beat them through the air and in pace.

 Poland has been one of the most solid teams in the tournament, as proven by the fact that it took a Shaqiri wonder goal to finally see the Poles concede in France, having shut down Germany in the group stage in a game they could’ve won. Their main focus in qualification was their attack though, and we’re yet to see all the sectors of team perform at the same time. The time is now.

Portugal

It wasn’t easy, rather a bumpy road, for Portugal to get to the quarter-final stage. Inserted in group F, widely renowned as the least star studded of the competition, Portugal had the chance, and some said the obligation, of coming out of the group strong and in first place.

 Fernando Santos had a problem and he tried to found a solution. The lack of quality strikers in his national pool, allied to the goal machine that Ronaldo can be, determined that former Greece manager opted for changing Portugal’s natural system from a 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2. But a very unorthodox system, where the two strikers are normally wingers by nature, they open up the defense with runs and behind and open space for the likes of João Mario or Renato Sanches to be the second line of danger.
 Santos’ changes go much deeper than the players he employs and how they organize on the pitch, though. What really needed a change, and it seems is coming, was the mentality and cold blood, necessary to survive a competition like this. Portugal was always a team that wanted the ball, wanted to create danger and make the crowd gasp in enthusiasm. A very liked team, with good players, that never won anything. But Santos is trying to change that. Forget being liked, forget attacking without criteria, just for the sake of it. Now Portugal doesn’t mind, even thrives, on giving the possession away and playing in a counter-attack style, that fits best the skills of Ronaldo, Nani or Quaresma.

 Their win against Croatia was a bit overshadowed by the lack of chances, but it was pretty clear that the Croats didn’t create anything because of the web in the midfield that Santos arranged to stop Modric and Rakitic. Adrien Silva was absolutely essential in that, with William also gaining his spot.

The game

Both teams arrive in Marseille coming off very hard fought wins, but can take away the positive of their opponent being the other team that played an extra-time and won, meaning there’s no team more tired than the other.
 It’s an historic opportunity for both this countries, not only to get to a semi-final, a place there are not that used to, but with their side of the draw being accessible, you’d feel both Poland and Portugal are strong enough to get to Paris and play the final.
 But for that to happen, one of them will go out today. The pace of the match will be decided by Nawalka’s strategy in the beginning, because it’s expected that Fernando Santos will bet on the same team that engulfed Croatia in their web, didn’t allow their stars to shine, and got a very scrappy win. Poland on the other hand, ended the game defending, something they don’t like, and with Lewandowski and Milik both suffering from knocks, it’s hard to say how fit they are for this match.

 If the striking force that Nawalka has in his hand is back on form, then Poland will probably take the steer of the game, try to dominate while Portugal sits back and counters with their quickness and wit, with Ronaldo needing to show a bit more of himself. Adrien Silva was a great part of the win in the last-16 and he will have the mission to block the Polish creativity, mainly Krychowiak.

Both defenses have been very solid, and both attacks less prolific than they should, but still enough to be in this stage, and for one of them, enough to get to the semis. It’s unlikely that the managers will change much of their teams, so expect a game where teams will be afraid to concede first, will be mostly playing safe. It will be required that the stars of both sides step up their game, and it feels like Portugal has been a bit better on that particular item. And with that in mind, we feel that Portugal is the slight favorite, but Poland will dominate possession. There will be few goals in this match, especially if there’s no early goal to open play up, and Portugal's bigger experience can be a decisive factor. Poland needs their goalscoring machine back, or their chances will be tarnished. 

England vs Iceland - Last-16 Round preview

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The ultimate underdog story, a nation of 323.000 people, with 10% of them in France supporting their national team that made country history in just qualifying. Iceland is a squad with very tall, strong players and this generation and next to come are enjoying an upgrade of the facilities that is start to show. They no longer are unfamiliar to controlling the ball, and they defend with all their heart, achieving an incredible qualification to the knockout stage.
 England must be happy but with suspicious of Iceland. Hodgson’s squad is the clear favorite for the game, but that also brings added pressure, built up with the average performance in the group stage, especially in the finishing side of the games.

 It’s a game where you can expect England to have the control of the ball and Iceland trying to defend and break when they can, always with few man to avoid disorganizing their backline. For England is going to be a frustrating game, much like it was against Slovakia, and the players must be focused to not let the frustration affect their game. If they can avoid it England, should, get through and book a place to face France.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

England 80%-20% Iceland

Italy vs Spain - Last-16 Round preview

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Two contrasting performances in the group stage made possible the replay of the Euro 2012 final in the Last 16 in France. Back in Kiev, it was a mauling from Spain, absolutely dismantling a team led by Balotelli and Pirlo. A lot has change in the Squadra Azzura, both Balo and Pirlo are not in the squad, and Conte has in his team a group of players that are aware that they are out looked by everyone, but with the next Chelsea manager applying his quality methods, he formed a team that defends as well as their predecessors, and with an interesting partnership formed by Eder and Pellé, they are the perfect duo for the countering style that Italy and Conte used to surprise Belgium and top the group.

 Unfortunately, the reward for the Italians was to face the reigning champions Spain. After the two expected wins in the first two matches - against Czech Republic and Turkey - where Del Bosque’s squad took a while, but eventually found a way to score goals, with Morata claiming the spot of striker, it seemed that Spain would top group D, with authority and ready to face a 3^rd placed team.
 Instead, in a match they only needed a draw, Spain completely feel asleep on its own game, after scoring a very early goal. And that allowed Croatia to grow in confidence and eventually turn it around to grab the win and, more importantly, the first place. Spain showed again its difficulties in set pieces and Italy will prove a very tough opponent to beat. The Spanish backline has been questioned, and they will have to keep focus if they want to help their team progress.

 A (very) anticipated final, one of this great nations will go home, and surely they will want to gives us something to remember to avoid that happening.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Italy 45%-55% Spain

Germany vs Slovakia - Last-16 round preview

                             
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The World Champions arrived in France in a sea of doubt, the results and the exhibitions prior to the competition were not adequate for their status and Low’s choices were being questioned. And then, even though Gotze as striker needed to be corrected during the group stage, Germany arrived to the actual games and did what it does best, dominate and win. They failed to score against Poland, and that was the trick for Goméz to regain his position.

 Slovakia had an irregular campaign so far, but they played fairly well in the first two games, they were on top of Wales for the most part of the game, but with Hamsik not performing well enough, they ended up putting pressure on themselves, pressure that they relished on, dismantling Russia and frustrating England to a draw that ended up with them qualified.

Germany and Slovakia actually met in May, with the Hamsik’s team obtaining an historic victory, but that game was exactly the wake up call that Germany needed, and they will be much readier to face Slovakia this time.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Germany 70%-30% Slovakia

France vs Rep. Ireland - Last-16 round preview

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The hosts are one of the strongest teams in the competition, so it was surprising to see France’s difficulties in breaking down the defenses of Romania, Albania and Switzerland. But it’s hard to say that France did not do their bidding, they created a lot of chances and had in Payet one of the best players of the tournament so far.

 The competition will only, really, start now for Deschamps’ team, as it’s now that their defense will finally be tested, with teams now obliged to try and attack to progress. It will be the final test for France’s title candidacy, with Koscielny and Rami being under a particular demanding look, as they were not the first – or second, or third – choice for center backs.

 Ireland got here with a fantastic win against Italy, after two games where they showed their limitations, with the Belgium match being particularly bad for the Irish, making Roy Keane react in his priceless style of communication. They will have to summon up their former captain spirit, if they have any hopes of defeating the hosts.

 In a side note, if anything, this will probably be the best match in the stands, with the hosts meeting their best visitors.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

France 75%-25% Rep.Ireland

Croatia vs Portugal Last-16 round preview

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It was a very unlikely match to happen, but Croatia’s proof of force and Portugal’s inability to win – or lose, for that matter – any game lead us to one of the headlines of the last 16 round. Two strong candidates to dark horses status, only the Croats confirmed they are ready to try and go all the way, 18 years after their historic campaign in the World Cup in this very same France. Inserted in a group that required full concentration from kickoff, Croatia’s midfield talent emerged, with Modric, Rakitic, Perisic being top quality players that destroyed the teams they faced in the group stage. They lost focus after their fans disrupted the game against Czech Republic, but responded fantastically against Spain, even with Cacic changing his squad. It was that win that confirmed Croatia is a strong candidate to be in the final.

 Portugal has just be disappointing. There’s very few things to motivate them after the three shockers of matches – all for different reasons – they had, but maybe the fact they haven’t lost, and that Ronaldo seems to be regaining confidence. And that is what gives Portugal some chances of qualifying. Because Ronaldo can, almost alone, win a game. Even against Hungary, with both Dzusdszak’s goals being deflected, you could argue that the Real Madrid’s goals should’ve been enough.

 It will all depend how well Modric recovered from the injury, and how the Croatian midfield will be on the day. They have the quality to dominate Portugal, but they will have to be quick on the ball, and they will have a very different match from the Spain one. Because this Portugal team, in the way its set up, will gladly give up possession so they can unleash quick counters, with Ronaldo throttling them forward. With all the quality in the players involved, this promises to be one of the best matches of this round, and we hope it lives to that expectation.  

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Croatia 60%%-40% Portugal

Group F analysis - A group of minnows, dominated by the minnows of the minnows

1^st Hungary (>FIL’s Prediction)

  Hungary came into France knowing they were looked as the weak team in a weak group. Storck was aware of his team’s limitations, set them to defend and counter against Austria, in search of, maybe, a draw to set them alive in the competition.

 Things went better than expected, with a great win that catapulted to the top of the group, place they would never give up. They had real trouble against the organized Iceland, only getting the draw in the dying minutes of the game. And in the end they gave us the most electrifying game of the competition, a positive 3-3 draw against Portugal.

 They got first place and they did much more they expected, so they have nothing to lose, and that can be their biggest force.

2^nd Iceland (>FIL’s prediction)

 The biggest of the fairytales, a country that is so little that 10% of its population is in France to support this absolutely unthinkable dream. A dream they don’t want to end and their trusting their heroes to let continue, and what a job they’re doing in it.

 With a lot of players that never dreamed to be here, allied to the experience of names like Sigurdsson, Gunnarson or Sigthorssen, Iceland has a very clear game plan, and have the perfect executioners for the plan, designed by cult hero Lars Lagerback. They defend with every man, very physically, and try to counter with long balls to the two players upfront, giants that are now able to hold the ball. That’s how they surprised Portugal and got the win against Austria. The dream is alive!

3^rd Portugal (<FIL’s Prediction)

 One of the teams that can be very thankful to the format of the competition, Portugal was very underwhelming during the group stage. With Ronaldo only being himself in the last match, when his team was getting desperate, Portugal is a team that seems unable to create danger when they control possession.

 They had three matches where they were the favorite, and they drew all of them, always making shots, with Ronaldo being prolific at that, but very rarely able to actually transform them in goals. Nani and Ronaldo need more help from their midfield, like it happened, finally, against Hungary. They qualified, and with Ronaldo they can win any game, but they haven’t yet, and that cannot be positive for morale.

 4^th Austria (<FIL’s Prediction)

 It was the opening match that determined Austria would be a flop, more than a dark horse. And it all started so well, they were pressing, they had chances, but they faced the best Király of the competition, and were always just an inch away from the goal.
 Then, the horror. They conceded, Dragovic was sent off, and a second goal still went by Robert Almer. And the competition was that much harder now, especially with Portugal coming, also in need of a win.

 They hold Ronaldo, but then, again, weren’t able to break down an organized defense, this time in the form of Iceland, ended up losing the game, and going home, with the feeling they could’ve done much more...

Group E analysis - Italy never dies, while Zlatan said goodbye to his national team

1^st Italy (>FIL’s Prediction)

They were the biggest surprise for us and it was mostly due to their great win in the opening match against Belgium, in a vintage Italy display of hard defending and efficient counter. With that win they scrambled the group up and could play their usual style against the weaker opposition.

 It the Éder late goal they guaranteed the first place of the group of death, but fate has played a trick on them, with Spain loss to Croatia dictating a clash of giants in the 2^nd round.

2^nd Belgium (<FIL’s prediction)

 That first match, where Wilmots did not use his usual team, was enough to determine that Belgium would not get the first place of the group, something they surely are happier about, after seeing the mess of group F.

 After a very worrying game, that showed a very boring Belgium, completely trapped in the Italian style that engulfed them and did not allow Belgium to play. That put them under pressure to both games with Ireland and Sweden, where true Belgium appeared. Their form is going up, and they have to be confident.

3^rd Rep.Ireland (>FIL’s Prediction)

 The best fans in the competition deserved a reward and they got it with just five minutes to go in the group stage, when Brady jumped higher than Sirigu to give Ireland the win against Italy. That win gave Ireland four points and the third place, something that they ended up deserving. Their quality is not grand but their spirit is, and was with that they subdued Sweden for 45 minutes, and Italy for the whole match.

 They were, though, completely outdone by Belgium, showing us that this Ireland can fight, but if their opponent doesn’t back down, the Irish will struggle.

4^th Sweden (<FIL’s Prediction)

 Zlatan was too alone for things to go well for Sweden. The big man is now retired from international football, and he tried to help his team to have one proper final goodbye, but the quality of his teammates was so far away from his, that Ibrahimovic felt he had to be everywhere for his team to stand a chance.

 As good as Zlatan is, he obviously couldn’t be omnipresent, and Sweden was just a big disappointment, never seeming able to go and beat any of their opponents. Something that they didn’t. It’s Zlatan’s goodbye and it seems nobody will remember he was in the Euro.