Euro 2016 Final - France

The hosts have been in an ascending curve in terms of form in the Euros, culminating that with an historic win against Germany, a match that they had not won in more than 50 years. It was almost back against the wall at some stages of the match, with the Germans clearly missing the presence in Lloris area, in the shape of Mario Gómez, as Muller was clearly out-of-form in France.
 Griezmann was the player that had the chances to take advantage of the Germans defensive mistakes, improving his tally to 6 in the competition, and taking France to another final as hosts, after 1984 and 1998. They won those two, will they be able to repeat the feat?

Strengths

·         Arguably the best player of the tournament, award he will mostly likely get if France wins the title, Griezmann had a terrific season in Atlético Madrid, but the penalty he missed in the Champions League final seemed to undermine his confidence, as he only showed a little glimpse of what he can do in the group stage, with a goal against Albania. But when things got serious Griezmann showed his quality in finding spaces with his pace to score goals, lots of goals. 6 in total and two against the Germans, that give the French with Portuguese ancestry the whole confidence in the world. 

·         Giroud has a very physical presence in the box, and has a good matchup in Pepe, as the Portuguese centre back has the tendency of coming forward and leaving some spaces behind him in the box. If he has the space, the Arsenal striker can impose his good heading ability, either through open play or a set piece, and be a difference maker.

·         With or without Kanté, France’s major strength is their midfielders’ ability to press and recover possession quickly and going forward with pace and strength, with the likes of Payet and Pogba more as the creativity outlets, and Sissoko a powerful and strong runner on the right side, will put Portugal’s back line under pressure. Matuidi will be required to have more defensive worries, but his tendency to attack through the left side might be a way for Portugal to try and counter.

Weaknesses

·         With the suspension of N’Golo Kanté for the game against Iceland, Deschamps started Moussa Sissoko and the team responded well in the attacking part of the game, always bombing forward with six players. That resulted in a great first half, where destroyed Iceland, but in the other two halves they played together, the midfield formed from Pogba and Matuidi seemed a little too unprotected, especially against Germany. With Kanté on the pitch, Matuidi and, especially, Paul Pogba have the freedom to go forward, knowing the Leicester man will be in their backs in case anything goes wrong in possession. 

·         The centre backs have been one of the major concerns for Didier Deschamps, as he saw the pair he was going to use in the competition (Varane-Mathieu), ruled out because of injuries. Koscielny has been the leader in the back, with Umititi gaining the spot over Rami, but with either partner it feels like France is shaky in the back, especially in the centre, making Evra and Sagna come inside leaving space in the wings for the opposition full backs to adventure.

·         That lack of defensive awareness of the French is especially noticeable in defensive set pieces. Deschamps sets his team up in zonal marking, no players in the second post and Giroud in charge of being the first defender in position to clear the ball, but his lack of knowledge in the defensive process makes France liable when defending corners and free kicks in wide areas.

How they will approach the Final

 There is no reason to believe that Deschamps will make any changes to his starting eleven for the final in Saint-Denis. It was the same group of players that Deschamps chose to start the game against Iceland and with great success, with a perfect first half. In those forty five minutes, France destroyed the Icelandic dream, pressuring high up in the pitch and overrunning the Vikings that, this time, couldn’t respond.
 Against Germany, though, the game wasn’t easy in the first half, where it Low’s team showed that they missed the quality and presence of Mario Gómez, as it was around the box that things stopped working. And the penalty came out of nowhere to lift France’s morale, and destroy the Germans. But if the semi-final taught us anything, is that the trio of Pogba, Matuidi and Sissoko get caught in the offensive transition, and leave too much space between themselves and the defensive line. With players like Ronaldo, Nani, Renato Sanches and João Mário, players that are always trying to find those pockets of space, Deschamps must decide if Kanté needs to be on the pitch from the beginning, or if he’s going for an early advantage and then try to manage the score-line. The second option seems more likely, but it’s a risky move against an organized, and counter-attack minded Portugal. 

France vs Rep. Ireland - Last-16 round preview

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The hosts are one of the strongest teams in the competition, so it was surprising to see France’s difficulties in breaking down the defenses of Romania, Albania and Switzerland. But it’s hard to say that France did not do their bidding, they created a lot of chances and had in Payet one of the best players of the tournament so far.

 The competition will only, really, start now for Deschamps’ team, as it’s now that their defense will finally be tested, with teams now obliged to try and attack to progress. It will be the final test for France’s title candidacy, with Koscielny and Rami being under a particular demanding look, as they were not the first – or second, or third – choice for center backs.

 Ireland got here with a fantastic win against Italy, after two games where they showed their limitations, with the Belgium match being particularly bad for the Irish, making Roy Keane react in his priceless style of communication. They will have to summon up their former captain spirit, if they have any hopes of defeating the hosts.

 In a side note, if anything, this will probably be the best match in the stands, with the hosts meeting their best visitors.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

France 75%-25% Rep.Ireland

Group A analysis - No big surprises for the hosts

1^st France (=FIL’s Prediction)

 France, as hosts and clearly better team than the other of the group, were expected to top the table and they did that, but some will probably argue that the form they got there wasn’t brilliant. It’s a fact that the French had a lot of troubles to win their games, to break their opponents’ defenses, but the truth is that they got two late wins that made everything work accordingly.

 With Payet looking on form, France is looking in good shape to go far in the tournament, as long as they keep their defense solid. They weren’t really tested so it’s hard to say if Koscielny and Rami are ready for the knockouts.

2^nd Switzerland (=FIL’s prediction)

 In a very similar story to France’s, Switzerland ended up doing what was expected from them, but the way they achieved their second place was certainly underwhelming. They ended up backs against the wall against 10-man Albania, only could scrape out a draw out of Romania, and were never really a threat for France.

 It was the usual style for the Swiss, a great work rate and consistency, but too little flair to create danger, really dependent on Shaqiri. Especially with Petkovic’s insistency on Seferovic, that hasn’t produce any results yet. It must get frustrating with players like Embolo on the bench, but Switzerland as done as they were obliged, in the end.

3^rd Albania (>FIL’s Prediction)

  One of the fairytales of the tournament, must end up in a bit of disappointment for them, as they end up being one of the 3^rd places teams that goes home. They were punished by their own inexperience in the first two games that, with a bit more composure, could’ve resulted in different scenarios.

 Lenjani was one of the good revelations, with Hysaj confirming he is a class above his teammates. Lorik Cana was a big letdown, when he was supposed to see the voice of experience.

4^th Romania (<FIL’s Prediction)

 It was the game against Albania that dictated the disappointment for Romania. Up to that game they were very decent, making France working very hard for the win, and managing a rewarding draw against Switzerland that made them dream.
 It wasn’t to be, as their inability to create decent chances and a defensive mishap defeated them, throwing them to the last place of the group.

 Stancu and Stanciu were two of the good headlines for Romania, but Chiriçes and Tatarusanu weren’t up to par and were on focus in the Albanian goal. 

Group A – Final round preview

How they got here

France

The hosts had two very hard fought games that ended up with massive joy, with both wins coming in the last minutes. It might be arguable if they performed up to the standards expected to one of the main candidates, but the truth is that they have two wins and qualification is guaranteed.

Switzerland

Much like France, Switzerland was able to get the results expected, with the draw against Romania being acceptable due to circumstance, but the quality of their play was up to debate. It was with that draw that Switzerland pretty much took the driving seat for qualification, needing only a draw to assure the second place in the group.

Romania

Two good displays of defensive organization, very hard fought teamwork, but it some lacks of concentration that were enough for Romania to not be in a much better position for the last match. Their quality of play was very interesting and they were one of the good teams of the group stage.

Albania

One of the fairytale stories in France might still end in joy. It’s certain that they lost both games, but against strong opposition as the likes of France and Switzerland, Di Biasi’s team did very well, creating chances – not many, obviously – and holding their opponents attacking forces. They deserved at least a point from one of those games, but their finishing and lack of experience did them.

What they need

France

Expect Deschamps to give a chance to some of the players that weren’t used yet. It’s hard to say how many and which players will Les Bleus’ manager will rotate, but France knows that they only need a draw to win the group so it’s not expected that they’ll get desperate if the win seems in danger.

Switzerland

It wouldn’t be surprising to see a sort of pact of no-aggression between France and Switzerland, as the draw will serve pretty much every expectation that both teams had at the start of that group. More than that, Switzerland knows Romania is coming for them, and if they lose they risk falling to third.

Romania

It’s do or die, against Albania. Romania knows that a win will be a great boost for their qualification, especially if they see Switzerland loses with France. That would guarantee Iordanescu’s team the second place, but the win might be enough, depending on the other groups 3^rd placed team’s points.

Albania

Much like Romania, Albania knows that a win gives them 3^rd place, and with the rules of this competition, they’ll have to wait to see if three points are enough. But more than that, Albania will play this game trying to get their first goal and points of the competition, not necessarily because of qualification, but mostly to national pride. 

Matchday 6 - France qualified as Hamsik roars again.

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Headlines

RUSSIA

·         The Player – Fedor Smolov
 
  Very active, but with problems with his finishing, Smolov ended up being the most resilient man upfront for Russia, even if he wasn’t that productive. Smolov tried, fought a lot, and is in the goal play, with a good pass for Shatov.

·         The Moment – Another late goal.

 At a time that Slovakia already thought the game won, came the best Russian play of the game, a great combination in the right between Smolov and Shatov, with the latter find Gulashkov for the goal. It wasn’t enough.

·         The Team

 It was a good start from Russia, knowing that a win would be vital to qualify in this group. Slutsky entered the match determined in being the first team to score and they had chances. Unfortunately everything went sour when Hamsik sliced up their defense for Weiss goal. And with Napoli’s star great strike, the Russians could never had come back.
 

SLOVAKIA

·         The Player – Marek Hamsik

Much better from the Napoli better, that this time had no great runs denied miraculously, but had much more influence in the result, creating Weiss’ goal, and scoring one himself. He commanded the midfielder, and made sure his team got the win. 

·         The Moment- Goal of the tournament?

 The way how Hamsik takes the opponent out of the way, looks up and, from the edge of the box, makes the ball go away, away from Akinfeev and against the back post, before laying comfortable in the net. The best goal of the tournament so far.

·         The Team

  Now, this is the Slovakia we expected. They started waiting to see how Russia would play, and after the first twenty minutes, Hamsik started controlling the game, with his pinpoint passing that never misses the target. They ended the second half in a high, and tried to kill the game, which they couldn’t
 Ended up suffering, but Slovakia definitely deserved the win.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

A very open and well played match, ended up with the better and most organized team winning fair and square. Russia started the game very well, trying to create chances, something they never did against England. Slovakia opted for a more contained approach, waiting for the Russian to take control.
 When Hamsik started taking the play to his feet though, the game changed. With the space left behind the full backs, Hamsik could play “find the alone winger” and create a goal. And after he decided to present us with a highlight that will stand for long time.

 The Russians accused the two goals, and barely tried to react until the 65 minute. Until then, Slovakia could’ve won the game and ended up suffering a goal, and risking losing points in a game they did not deserve it.

 Slovakia almost guaranteed third spot but they face a tough game versus England, and Russia knows they have to win and that might not be enough. It promises to be an emotional third round. aHaHHhhHaa

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Headlines

ROMANIA

·         The Player – Alexandru Chipciu
 
  One of Iordanescu’s bets for the game, Chipciu showed he was ready. Playing on the left side, move that implicated Stancu on the middle, Steaua’s winger created constant trouble for Lichsteiner, being involved in the penalty play and confusing the Juventus’ full back with his pace and technique.

·         The Moment – Sapunaru misses the 2-0

Romania’s great first half translated in various chances, none bigger the one Sapunaru missed. After scoring first, the Romanians kept attacking in search of doubling their lead and they almost got it, when Sapunaru got the ball in the 6-yard box and smashed it against the post. And Switzerland would make them pay. 

·         The Team

Good game from Romania. Iordanescu believed that he could get the win against Switzerland and changed things around in order to do so, and the pace of the game proved him right. Only the blaster from Mehmedi could stop Romania from getting an historic win, in the end.


  

SWITZERLAND

·         The Player – Blerim Džemaili

  You could say it’s not necessarily it’s fault that Petkovic wants him to play advanced in the pitch, but every time Dzemaili gets that chance he seems to not enjoy it. He has a hard time with the ball at his feet, and rarely takes the best decision in the shot selection, making him fairly easy to annul by the Romania side.

·         The Moment- Mehmedi, bomb them!

 It was looking exactly like the Albania game, where Switzerland created the chances, but could not take them. Until a badly dealt with corner, from Romania, that came straight to Mehmedi’s left foot, and the Leverkusen player not wasting it and, virtually, qualifying Switzerland for the next stage.

·         The Team

  It was, again, far from pretty, but in the end Switzerland got a result that serves them perfectly. Seferovic was again wasteful, and this time Switzerland did have to run after the result, which resulted in more attacks and more possession, where the Swiss did ok, even though they still need to improve to face bigger opposition.

 

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

A good game where both teams went for the win, and both ended up coming up short. Iordanescu’s changes in the attack messed up the Swiss plans, and Romania ended up scoring in an unquestionable penalty.

 Switzerland was then force to take back control of the game, which they had troubles with in the first half, where Romania could’ve grabbed a second goal and possibly the match, with Sapunaru’s chance being the most flagrant.

 Before the teams could really settle Mehmedi equalized, and the game dropped in intensity. After all, both teams know that 4 points should be enough, and Switzerland got them while Romania believes they can defeat Albania. And it’s not exactly a great imagination exercise that that happens. 

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Headlines

FRANCE

·         The Player – Kingsley Coman
 
  Started instead of Griezmann in the right side, and the Bayern player should he deserves more time. Always looking for the ball, to play it forward, brave enough to attack far post crosses, Coman only lacked some composure in the final third, something we will put down to nerves, as we’re talking about a 20yr old.

·         The Moment – Déja vu!

 Much like the Romania game, the winning goal came late, very late, in a time where the press was surely testing headlines for such an unthinkable result. With pressure mounting, Albania’s defense ended up opening, and Rami did a great cross for Griezmann to finish it. Deadlock broken, and Albania’s hopes almost shattered.

·         The Team

 It was another exhibition that felt like something was missing, but that in the end guaranteed qualification. That’s France so far, not being brilliant against weaker opponents, but they get the win, and that’s mostly due to their individual quality. A team with Payet, Coman, Pogba, Griezmann, Martial can create so much that’s almost impossible to stop them.
 

ALBANIA

·         The Player – Elseid Hysaj

 Good game from the Napoli right back that had mostly defensive worries, but never tried to help in the attack, as points were needed. With a great physical capacity, Hysaj covered all the ground he could whilst try to stop Coman, Martial and others from creating danger.

·         The Moment- Those last 5 minutes of the 1^st half

  There was also Ledian’s confusing ball to the post, but those five minutes were brilliant. Confident after a good first half, where they had hold France, the Albanians tried their luck and created 2 or 3 half chances that, with more time or composure, could’ve been scored. And, in the end of the 2^nd, France showed how it’s done.
  

·         The Team

It was another valiant performance that ended up in disappointment and no points. But again, you cannot fault Di Biasi or his team, as they played with their strengths, tried to hide their faults, and did a great job at that.
 They have a final against Romania that, with some luck around the groups, might seem them through.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

France guaranteed qualification in a game where, again, they underwhelmed everybody with the production they had. They hardly ever could break the Albanian organized defense, and even ended up the first half in trouble, with Di Biasi’s team forcing for a possible strike from heaven.

 It wasn’t to come, and Lloris still saw a ball hit his left post until Albania’s gas ran out. It was time to try to hold on, and they were doing a fantastic job until they left Griezmann alone in the penalty spot, with the Atletico player not wasting the chance. Payet scored the second and sealed a hard fought win.

 France can rest players against Switzerland, if it pleases Deschamps, but that’s unlikely as he’ll want to top the group. As for Albania, they have to win against Romania, and then pray for the results they’ll need.   

France vs Albania - preview

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- Latest events

FRANCE

·         It was hard but, thanks to Payet, France was able to get the win they needed in the first match of the Euro  

·         There were some problems though, as the chance creation wasn’t brilliant, the midfielders couldn’t control their area and the game was at risk.   

·         They will face very similar opposition in Albania, so France has the advantage of what to correct and how to do it.   

ALBANIA

·         Their first match ever in a big competition ended with mixed feelings.    

·         They lost the game, they lost Lorik Cana for the game against France, but they were absolutely brilliant in the second half, fighting with everything they had and almost getting the draw they so looked for.

·         They need to get something from this match and, though it’s unlikely they achieve it, they won’t give up until it ends.   

- Areas to follow

FRANCE

·         Defense

Koscielny and Rami had an insecure game, not always dealing well with Andone, and it’s something they will need to continue to work on. Evra was rather poor, conceding an unnecessary penalty, and unable to follow Popa’s movements. A shaky start for France’s back line.

·         Midfield

One of the biggest issues France had against Romania, was the space covered by Matuidi, Kanté and Pogba. With Matuidi mainly to the left, Kanté covering behind Pogba, if the opponents moves thorough the French right side they will on space. Pogba wasn’t brilliant and Payet ended up being the playmaker and creating the doubt of where he should start the games.

·         Attack

 Griezmann had more chances than Giroud, but it was Arsenal’s player the first goalscorer in the competition. But Giroud had little ball, couldn’t really get involved or create noteworthy chances. Griezmann missed a couple of good opportunities, but it showed promise for latter stages.  

             

ALBANIA

·            Defense

    Without Lorik Cana, they will face powerhouse France leaderless, but ready to show they deserve to be here. They were only beaten by an early goal and they were able to hold the rest of the Swiss attack, but Deschamps’ team will be more prolific.

·             Midfield

    They will have to run a lot after Pogba, Matuidi and Kanté, and cannot give up, if their team has any hope to get anything from the game. It’s going to be hard, and they will be in need to rest after such intense 90 minutes, but if they keep going, they can get rewarded.

·             Attack

Both Sadiku and Çikalleshi missed chances that could have been the equalizer in the first match, and they both know that if they get something similar, they will have to take it better. No pressure, boys!

- FIL’S VERDICT

 France is the favorite and France needs to prove it, as the game against Romania left more questions than answers, and they will want to face Switzerland ahead of their rivals. Albania will fight a lot, will try their best, but without their voice of command, it will be even more difficult.

 The trio of Matuidi-Kanté-Pogba needs to do something different, as a lot of the problems Deschamps’ team had was created by their underwhelming exhibition. To their advantage is the lack of technical quality from the Albanian players, when pressured they can’t get hold of the ball, and that will show.

 If Koscielny-Rami get themselves together, then it really should be a walkover for the French, but expect a lot of fight in their rivals.

  

FIL’S PREDICTION

FRANCE 2-0 ALBANIA