Final Euro 2016 - Portugal

What a ride it has been for Ronaldo’s team, in France. As always, Portugal arrived at the competition as an outsider to get to the latter stages, mostly due to the fact that they have in their ranks one of the best players ever, but their group stage was very underwhelming, with all game ending up in draws, and a qualification as a 3^rd best placed seemed to predict hard times for Fernando Santos’ squad.
 In the knockout stages, Santos has been employing a result-minded strategy, ignoring the critics that bash this as “negative football”, stating he much rather win the games, even if it’s not in the beautiful way. And the fact is, making the best of their side of the draw, Portugal got the 2^nd final in their history, first away from home and they’ll want to do to France what Greece did to them.

Strengths

·         He is best player in the world, obsessed in the need of being the best ever, Ronaldo looked like he was feeling the pressure to perform in the group stages, making the right movements, but only making what he does best against Hungary, in the last push for a very hard-fought qualification. In the knockouts he seemed a bit looser and his form is rising, with the game against Wales being the match where Ronaldo showed more of himself. More than anyone, the Real Madrid superstar will want to get his hand on the trophy, and he’ll have to be on form to achieve an historic title that will catapult him to Best Ever status.

·         One of the reasons Portugal has been sucessuful in France is the great moment of form that Pepe presented in the competition. The Real Madrid problematic defender has been a true leader in the Portuguese team, fact much more noticeable if you think that he only arrived in the country with 17 years old. With his pace and anticipation, Pepe is also one that can bring his team forward, with long passes or carrying the ball himself, but today he’ll have to choose the moment of going forward as France will make him pay if space is left in behind.

·         In a competition where the routines are hard to come by, it took three games, but eventually Fernando Santos succumbed to the pressure of deploying the trio of William, Adrien and João Mário, players that have been playing together for 2 years, and successfully. William and Adrien will have another big mission in stopping the main dangers from opponents, as they did with Modric/Rakitic, Milik/Krychowiak, and now will try to stop Griezmann/Pogba, the two most dangerous French men.

Weaknesses

·         Renato Sanches has clearly been the biggest Breakout Star of the Euros in France. After a great starting season at Benfica, that was rewarded with a multi-millionaire transfer to Bayern Munich, everyone was very curious to see how well the 18 year old would play in a bigger stage, and the wonderkid did not disappoint. He’s composed, strong, is not afraid to charge against the defender and has a very positive energy bringing Portugal forward in a different way than they were used too, potentiating a more counter-attacking style.
 The main concern with Renato Sanches is decision making in pass, that was an issue against Wales, and that France is more suited to make pay if they repeat themselves. But if he has options, he’ll carry the ball to the feet of a teammate, minoring the risks of a break on his defense.

·         Cédric Soares and Raphael Guerreiro have been the more consistent full backs for Portugal, with the left side player in a particular good moment of form that he will want to carry to his new adventure in Dortmund. For this final, though, both will have a very demanding game, as it will be required as much presence in the defensive as the offensive process. With João Mário and Renato Sanches’ tendencies to cut inside, there will be space in behind Evra/Sagna, but the young Portuguese defenders will have to time their runs well, to maintain the back line whole.  

·         The biggest debate in the Portugal’s starting XI is Danilo vs William. Not only because they are two good players, but because they bring very different aspects to Portugal’s game, it’s a decision that will probably will hugely influence the outcome of the final. If Santos opts for Danilo he will gain a holding midfielder that is a great recover of the ball, is ready for a tackle, but has trouble of getting possession clean out of their feet. William Carvalho looks better suited to deal with Paul Pogba that with Antoine Griezmann, but it will be the Atletico Madrid player that will be in his area, and the pace of the top goalscorer of the competition might put him into trouble, but if he can impose himself he can a be a great outlet to exploit the French space in the wide areas.

How they will approach the Final

Fernando Santos has a dream, and that is to win the Euro 2016. Ronaldo wants to win so badly he was missing goals he doesn’t usually miss, but he got his confidence back against Hungary and is ready for the last hurdle.
 It’s expected that Portugal will stick with the tactic that brought them here, in a sea of critics and shouts against their merit to reach the final, as the success they had speaks for them. For the game with France Santos will bring back Pepe and, probably, William, and then he might tweak the full back position to avoid the danger of Sissoko on the right. Certain is that Portugal will gladly give control of possession to France, as they have in the whole competition, and try to break on the hosts with the pace of Ronaldo, Nani, Sanches and others, all glued together by a very tough midfield duo of William and Adrien.

 The game against Wales was not the norm of the tournament, as it was the one where Portugal went into it as the slight favorite but they never were caught off position, rather maintain the defensive line, and they will be happy to give all the favoritism to France, sit back, and try to break quickly. It has worked so far, but they haven’t face an opponent as strong as the French yet, as everyone seems to think they will finally break. 

Euro 2016 Final - France

The hosts have been in an ascending curve in terms of form in the Euros, culminating that with an historic win against Germany, a match that they had not won in more than 50 years. It was almost back against the wall at some stages of the match, with the Germans clearly missing the presence in Lloris area, in the shape of Mario Gómez, as Muller was clearly out-of-form in France.
 Griezmann was the player that had the chances to take advantage of the Germans defensive mistakes, improving his tally to 6 in the competition, and taking France to another final as hosts, after 1984 and 1998. They won those two, will they be able to repeat the feat?

Strengths

·         Arguably the best player of the tournament, award he will mostly likely get if France wins the title, Griezmann had a terrific season in Atlético Madrid, but the penalty he missed in the Champions League final seemed to undermine his confidence, as he only showed a little glimpse of what he can do in the group stage, with a goal against Albania. But when things got serious Griezmann showed his quality in finding spaces with his pace to score goals, lots of goals. 6 in total and two against the Germans, that give the French with Portuguese ancestry the whole confidence in the world. 

·         Giroud has a very physical presence in the box, and has a good matchup in Pepe, as the Portuguese centre back has the tendency of coming forward and leaving some spaces behind him in the box. If he has the space, the Arsenal striker can impose his good heading ability, either through open play or a set piece, and be a difference maker.

·         With or without Kanté, France’s major strength is their midfielders’ ability to press and recover possession quickly and going forward with pace and strength, with the likes of Payet and Pogba more as the creativity outlets, and Sissoko a powerful and strong runner on the right side, will put Portugal’s back line under pressure. Matuidi will be required to have more defensive worries, but his tendency to attack through the left side might be a way for Portugal to try and counter.

Weaknesses

·         With the suspension of N’Golo Kanté for the game against Iceland, Deschamps started Moussa Sissoko and the team responded well in the attacking part of the game, always bombing forward with six players. That resulted in a great first half, where destroyed Iceland, but in the other two halves they played together, the midfield formed from Pogba and Matuidi seemed a little too unprotected, especially against Germany. With Kanté on the pitch, Matuidi and, especially, Paul Pogba have the freedom to go forward, knowing the Leicester man will be in their backs in case anything goes wrong in possession. 

·         The centre backs have been one of the major concerns for Didier Deschamps, as he saw the pair he was going to use in the competition (Varane-Mathieu), ruled out because of injuries. Koscielny has been the leader in the back, with Umititi gaining the spot over Rami, but with either partner it feels like France is shaky in the back, especially in the centre, making Evra and Sagna come inside leaving space in the wings for the opposition full backs to adventure.

·         That lack of defensive awareness of the French is especially noticeable in defensive set pieces. Deschamps sets his team up in zonal marking, no players in the second post and Giroud in charge of being the first defender in position to clear the ball, but his lack of knowledge in the defensive process makes France liable when defending corners and free kicks in wide areas.

How they will approach the Final

 There is no reason to believe that Deschamps will make any changes to his starting eleven for the final in Saint-Denis. It was the same group of players that Deschamps chose to start the game against Iceland and with great success, with a perfect first half. In those forty five minutes, France destroyed the Icelandic dream, pressuring high up in the pitch and overrunning the Vikings that, this time, couldn’t respond.
 Against Germany, though, the game wasn’t easy in the first half, where it Low’s team showed that they missed the quality and presence of Mario Gómez, as it was around the box that things stopped working. And the penalty came out of nowhere to lift France’s morale, and destroy the Germans. But if the semi-final taught us anything, is that the trio of Pogba, Matuidi and Sissoko get caught in the offensive transition, and leave too much space between themselves and the defensive line. With players like Ronaldo, Nani, Renato Sanches and João Mário, players that are always trying to find those pockets of space, Deschamps must decide if Kanté needs to be on the pitch from the beginning, or if he’s going for an early advantage and then try to manage the score-line. The second option seems more likely, but it’s a risky move against an organized, and counter-attack minded Portugal. 

France vs Iceland - Quarter-final preview

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France

 It’s has been the expected progress for Deschamps’ team, that arrives in Paris to the quarter-finals to face Iceland, and not England as expected. The biggest surprise of the last-16 gives France a very different challenge from what they planned for, and it’s a challenge very similar to all the games that they had in the group stage and against Ireland.

 The French have been a but underwhelming in the quality of their performances, but they did end up with the wins they needed, with Antoine Griezmann and Payet being the headlines, as Pogba has been out of form. France has been having trouble in the creativity part of the game, and their defense hasn’t been, really, tested. And they will have another problem, with the suspension of Rami.

Iceland

  If you want an Iceland shirt you’re going to have to wait in line. As they have been making the world dream with their fabulous story, a very small country, the size of the city of Leicester is, perhaps inspired by the feat of that city’s football club, achieving much more they ever expected in the competition.

 After a group stage where they were able to endure the pressure from the opponents and grab a win and two draws, they got second place and would face England, in a game where they were expected to fight bravely but, in the end, lose to the bigger talent of the English squad. Instead, they reacted fantastically to going down in the score line, turned the game around, and then showed us how a good defensive organization can still win games. Iceland keeps on dreaming, and we dream with them.

The game

It’s hard to say how pleased is Deschamps with the result of the last game of the Last-16 round. It’s a matter of fact that, clearly, Iceland is a less talented group of players, that are not used to being in the situation they find themselves at the moment. It’s an historic period of Icelandic football, in their first ever tournament they are still undefeated, and got a brilliant win over England, a match that will probably go down as one of the biggest humiliations of the Three Lions history. Lagerback’s pupils showed us what determination, team spirit, and, most of all, a plan, can do in a football pitch.
 France knows they are the favorites, and know that a win is what is expected of them, but Iceland has proved they believe in themselves and they want to keep writing history. That should not be enough, as France is on a mission to repeat 1998. It’s going to be a very tough match though, where France’s inability to break organized defenses might come to life again. 

Germany vs Italy - Quarter-final preview

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Germany

 The world champions took a while to start performing to their standard, but when the competition hit the knockout stage, they faced Slovakia – a team that beat them in May – the Germans didn’t flinch and applied their common demolition job, destroying Hamsik and co.’s hopes.

 It hasn’t the been the most glamourous of showings for Joachim Low’s team, with their performances lacking some punch in the group stage, mostly due to the insistence to have Mario Gotze in the striker role. When Low opted to go for Gómez everything started clicking better, and Germany seemed much more like their usual self, and they will need to step up, as they have the hard way to Paris side of the draw.

Italy

 They arrived in France very quietly, facing incredible disbelief and indifference from their own country, with statements like “Worst squad ever” being regularly heard, and with very little hopes of making truth to the name of Italy, especially facing a very tough group and starting against the young and powerful Belgium.
 If there’s something that the Chelsea fans will soon love about Antonio Conte is that he will take all the criticism with a smile and then keep on going with what he believes and, normally, with great results.
 Just look at their opening game in the Euro, against Belgium, where they were expected to have to hold off Wilmots’ team, and ended up dominating the match to gain control of the group. Destiny brought them the task of facing reigining champions Spain, and Italy showed us they are ready to try and go all the way, finishing once and for all the Spanish Era.  

The game

Germany has never won a match against Italy in a big competition. You might think “But that surely happens a lot, as teams don’t face off that often”, and while that’s true, this are two of the greatest Football nations, that always have been contenders, and have played 8 matches, with 4 Italy wins and 4 draws. Lotthar Matthaus admitted that one of the few Germany weaknesses comes when they see they have to face Italy.
 And what Italy they have to face. An Italy that doesn’t have the class of Baggio, Pirlo, Riva, Paolo Rossi, Maldini and many, many others, but what they have is their own BBC. Barzagli, Bonnuci and Chielini play together in Juventus in the back 3 that Conte brought with the Vecchia Signora and they give a tough time to the opponents’ offense. And if they can’t stop them, there’s always Buffon.
 This has all the possibilities of being one of the games of the tournament. Certainly one of the more decisive as one of the best contenders to the title will go home earlier. Low knows this is one of the biggest test he faces in his spell, and if he can break the curse against Italy, then Germany surely won’t stop until they grab the silverware. As for Conte’s squad, they wowed the world with the fantastic game they had against Spain, where they vulgarized Del Bosque and his team. With two very different styles, expect a high-quality, intense match. 

Wales vs Belgium - Quarter-final preview

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Wales

The dream is still alive for the United Kingdom to have representation in the final, but it has been Coleman’s Dragons that have been making the positive headlines, after England’s meltdown against the volcanic Iceland. Bale and his teammates have been brilliant so far in France, topping their group with two incredible wins against Slovakia and Russia, and being defeated in the end of the England’s match.

 This Wales team created a very solid team spirit that doesn’t allow egos, and the mega-star that is Gareth Bale has the same responsibilities as anybody else in terms of commitment and sacrifice for the team. They feel much more comfortable when they give away possession to their opponent and try to break on them, with long balls for the pace of the Real Madrid winger, Robson-Kanu or Ramsay. If they have to take control of the game, they are a bit out of their shape, as proven by the scrappy win against Nor. Ireland. But they got it, and can continue to make history if they can repeat the results they had against Belgium in qualification.

Belgium

 Belgium was seen as one possible dark horse for the competition, mostly due to the deth in quality that their squad has. It’s actually quite remarkable, when you look at the names that Wilmots has at his disposal, that they haven’t really went on to bigger things yet.

 It looked like this could another big disappointment to the Red Devils, with the loss and lack of chances created against Italy. A game that ensured the pressure was on Belgium for the rest of the group matches, pressure that brought out the best of the offensive threat that Hazard, De Bruyne, Mertens and Lukaku provide. Ireland and Sweden were dispatched, and in the last-16 they faced the highly motivated, but out of their area Hungary, that was dismantled when they were trying to get back into the match. It was a solid display, but with the scoreline not reflecting the game play, as Hungary had their chances.

The game

It has all the ingredients to be yet another upset in the Euros, the second quarter-final match. The surprising Wales face off with a Belgium team that, since they lost with Italy, has been very prolific in attack, but still seems a bit shaky in defense.

 Both teams know each other pretty well, as they were also opponents in qualification, and Wales had the upper hand in the H-2-H, being able to nullify the Belgium force, and capitalizing on their disorganized defensive line to win the game in Cardiff. Expect the game play to develop like in those two games, with Belgium trying to break Wales defense, and the Welsh unleashing quick counters with Bale and Robson-Kanu/Vokes as their pacey targets.

Belgium will have a very similar game to the one they had against Ireland, but this time their opponents are more organized in the back and have a world class player in the front. So, if you want to compare Wales with Italy, it wouldn’t be unthinkable. Certain is that Belgium is under pressure and anything but a win will be a massive failure and for Coleman’s squad being in the quarter-final is, surely, more than they ever dreamt. And they know they can beat Belgium, and will fight to get another piece of history in Lille.