Germany vs Italy - Quarter-final preview

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Germany

 The world champions took a while to start performing to their standard, but when the competition hit the knockout stage, they faced Slovakia – a team that beat them in May – the Germans didn’t flinch and applied their common demolition job, destroying Hamsik and co.’s hopes.

 It hasn’t the been the most glamourous of showings for Joachim Low’s team, with their performances lacking some punch in the group stage, mostly due to the insistence to have Mario Gotze in the striker role. When Low opted to go for Gómez everything started clicking better, and Germany seemed much more like their usual self, and they will need to step up, as they have the hard way to Paris side of the draw.

Italy

 They arrived in France very quietly, facing incredible disbelief and indifference from their own country, with statements like “Worst squad ever” being regularly heard, and with very little hopes of making truth to the name of Italy, especially facing a very tough group and starting against the young and powerful Belgium.
 If there’s something that the Chelsea fans will soon love about Antonio Conte is that he will take all the criticism with a smile and then keep on going with what he believes and, normally, with great results.
 Just look at their opening game in the Euro, against Belgium, where they were expected to have to hold off Wilmots’ team, and ended up dominating the match to gain control of the group. Destiny brought them the task of facing reigining champions Spain, and Italy showed us they are ready to try and go all the way, finishing once and for all the Spanish Era.  

The game

Germany has never won a match against Italy in a big competition. You might think “But that surely happens a lot, as teams don’t face off that often”, and while that’s true, this are two of the greatest Football nations, that always have been contenders, and have played 8 matches, with 4 Italy wins and 4 draws. Lotthar Matthaus admitted that one of the few Germany weaknesses comes when they see they have to face Italy.
 And what Italy they have to face. An Italy that doesn’t have the class of Baggio, Pirlo, Riva, Paolo Rossi, Maldini and many, many others, but what they have is their own BBC. Barzagli, Bonnuci and Chielini play together in Juventus in the back 3 that Conte brought with the Vecchia Signora and they give a tough time to the opponents’ offense. And if they can’t stop them, there’s always Buffon.
 This has all the possibilities of being one of the games of the tournament. Certainly one of the more decisive as one of the best contenders to the title will go home earlier. Low knows this is one of the biggest test he faces in his spell, and if he can break the curse against Italy, then Germany surely won’t stop until they grab the silverware. As for Conte’s squad, they wowed the world with the fantastic game they had against Spain, where they vulgarized Del Bosque and his team. With two very different styles, expect a high-quality, intense match. 

Italy vs Spain - Last-16 Round preview

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Two contrasting performances in the group stage made possible the replay of the Euro 2012 final in the Last 16 in France. Back in Kiev, it was a mauling from Spain, absolutely dismantling a team led by Balotelli and Pirlo. A lot has change in the Squadra Azzura, both Balo and Pirlo are not in the squad, and Conte has in his team a group of players that are aware that they are out looked by everyone, but with the next Chelsea manager applying his quality methods, he formed a team that defends as well as their predecessors, and with an interesting partnership formed by Eder and Pellé, they are the perfect duo for the countering style that Italy and Conte used to surprise Belgium and top the group.

 Unfortunately, the reward for the Italians was to face the reigning champions Spain. After the two expected wins in the first two matches - against Czech Republic and Turkey - where Del Bosque’s squad took a while, but eventually found a way to score goals, with Morata claiming the spot of striker, it seemed that Spain would top group D, with authority and ready to face a 3^rd placed team.
 Instead, in a match they only needed a draw, Spain completely feel asleep on its own game, after scoring a very early goal. And that allowed Croatia to grow in confidence and eventually turn it around to grab the win and, more importantly, the first place. Spain showed again its difficulties in set pieces and Italy will prove a very tough opponent to beat. The Spanish backline has been questioned, and they will have to keep focus if they want to help their team progress.

 A (very) anticipated final, one of this great nations will go home, and surely they will want to gives us something to remember to avoid that happening.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Italy 45%-55% Spain

Group E analysis - Italy never dies, while Zlatan said goodbye to his national team

1^st Italy (>FIL’s Prediction)

They were the biggest surprise for us and it was mostly due to their great win in the opening match against Belgium, in a vintage Italy display of hard defending and efficient counter. With that win they scrambled the group up and could play their usual style against the weaker opposition.

 It the Éder late goal they guaranteed the first place of the group of death, but fate has played a trick on them, with Spain loss to Croatia dictating a clash of giants in the 2^nd round.

2^nd Belgium (<FIL’s prediction)

 That first match, where Wilmots did not use his usual team, was enough to determine that Belgium would not get the first place of the group, something they surely are happier about, after seeing the mess of group F.

 After a very worrying game, that showed a very boring Belgium, completely trapped in the Italian style that engulfed them and did not allow Belgium to play. That put them under pressure to both games with Ireland and Sweden, where true Belgium appeared. Their form is going up, and they have to be confident.

3^rd Rep.Ireland (>FIL’s Prediction)

 The best fans in the competition deserved a reward and they got it with just five minutes to go in the group stage, when Brady jumped higher than Sirigu to give Ireland the win against Italy. That win gave Ireland four points and the third place, something that they ended up deserving. Their quality is not grand but their spirit is, and was with that they subdued Sweden for 45 minutes, and Italy for the whole match.

 They were, though, completely outdone by Belgium, showing us that this Ireland can fight, but if their opponent doesn’t back down, the Irish will struggle.

4^th Sweden (<FIL’s Prediction)

 Zlatan was too alone for things to go well for Sweden. The big man is now retired from international football, and he tried to help his team to have one proper final goodbye, but the quality of his teammates was so far away from his, that Ibrahimovic felt he had to be everywhere for his team to stand a chance.

 As good as Zlatan is, he obviously couldn’t be omnipresent, and Sweden was just a big disappointment, never seeming able to go and beat any of their opponents. Something that they didn’t. It’s Zlatan’s goodbye and it seems nobody will remember he was in the Euro.  

Group E - Final round preview

How they got here

Italy

Many people and written them off – us included – because of the lack of talent this squad as, in comparison to other times – and the fact they were in the hardest group possible for them. Or was it? Conte was brilliant tactically against Belgium, getting a fantastic win that set the tone for the group. The win against Sweden, with the other result, made sure first place is secured for Italy.

Belgium

Their defensive problems were completely cut open by Italy, in a game that brought Belgium from contender status back to earth. It’s a very bipolar team, Belgium, though. Because they altered that poor performance against Conte’s squad with a great showing against Ireland. Sure, the Irish weren’t really able to produce any danger, but that was also in part due to the Belgium pressure high up the pitch, something that didn’t work with Italy.

Sweden

Zlatan and his squad have, somewhat, disappointed. More than the result of their performances, that got them kind of where they expected, was the performances as a whole that weren’t up to par. Zlatan was obliged to be everywhere and, as much of a God as he is, he doesn’t have the omnipresence ability. Nothing is lost yet, but the first half against Ireland was very worrying.

Rep. Ireland

After a promising opening match, where they were very close to get an extremely important win, they style of play clashed with the stronger and better Belgium players, in a match Ireland was completely dismantled. The numbers of the defeat, heavy due to the lack of goals in this Euro, might be a problem.     

What they need

Italy

In a magnificent turn of events, that planned would not have worked, Italy was the only team able to secure the first place in just two matches. That means that Conte can use his squad as it pleases him, and the players know that they can play freely, because even if by any chance they lose, the position is theirs.

Belgium

After a horrible opener, Belgium turned things around and got back on track with a good, motivating win. They will face Sweden with the knowledge that a draw is enough, but Wilmots knows that he cannot sit back, or his defense might start leaking again, and Zlatan will make them pay.

Sweden

 The late goal from Éder just confirmed that Sweden has to win against Belgium, if they hope to qualify. They had troubles creating chances, mainly because they need Zlatan to create them, while it’s expected that Zlatan finishes the chances. It’s an impossible equation, but in one game, maybe. And it’s one of Sweden’s few hopes.  

Rep. Ireland

 In their favor will be Italy’s first position. Ireland will have to try and take advantage of any relaxation that might be on the Italian players and try and get a win. It’s Ireland opportunity to go on an all-out attack strategy, because even the win might be enough, especially with their negative goal difference. 

Italy vs Sweden - preview

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- Latest events

ITALY

·         They were one of the good surprises of the first round of games, with a great win against Belgium where Italy was clearly the best team.  

·         Conte proved us once more that he is one differential factor, and that he can make any team competitive.   

·         A win against Sweden will qualify Italy, in a unprecedented secure and quick successful group stage

SWEDEN

·         Sweden was a bit stunned by Ireland’s first half, but Hamren turned things around and Sweden ended that game on a high.  

·         The draw means that the next two games gain an extra importance, but Sweden has Zlatan, and that is a big help.     

·         If Ibracadabra can keep his level, Sweden can try and break Italy’s steel back line.   

- Areas to follow

ITALY

·         Defense

Years and years playing together make a difference, especially when the other teams rarely have the chance of doing that. Conte has Juve’s defense at their disposal, and he surely uses them. The result was a fantastic display of defending and counter and a great win that almost guarantees qualification.

·         Midfield

Giaccherini was the perfect example of what Italian midfielders are told to do in the pitch. Try to break lines with late runs, using the movement from Pelle and Eder to find spaces. That was the goal was born, and other chances came after, while they were battling – and winning – the Belgium midfielders.

·         Attack

Pelle. One name that has been said over and over again, a player that was maybe the best in the first round. He did a fantastic game, being a nuisance to all four Belgium defenders with his fight and will. He missed a couple of chances, but ended up being rewarded in the last minute. Fully deserved.

             

SWEDEN

·            Defense

It wasn’t the best of games, from the Swede backline, as they couldn’t really deal with the speed of Long and Walters. The first half was particularly poor, but Hamren corrected positioning at half time and ended up with nothing to worry from his defenders.

·             Midfield

It wasn’t until Zlatan started playing a bit near them that Sweden regained control of the game, as Kallstrom had a very bad performance, unable to create and hardly dealing with defensive issues. With Zlatan they had the number advantage, and everything went better

·             Attack

Zlatan did a good game, even though he wasn’t that much involved in the first half. As referred, it wasn’t until he tried to break the lines, playing between Irish’s defense and midfield, and it was from there that he could create the draw goal.

- FIL’S VERDICT

It promises to be a good match, with Sweden in need of a win, and Italy salivating with the possibility of playing in counter for the rest of the tournament. Against Belgium they were superb, completing tearing down the likes of Hazard, Lukaku or De Bruyne, and you’d feel that if they can do that to those 3.

 Unfortunately for Conte’s team, there are no two equal games, but as long as they are able to take Zlatan out of the game, they can get success. Don’t expect Italy to be overloading at any time, unless they end up being behind

It’s Sweden who has to attack, but due to their limitations, they have to be more effective. And keeping an eye on Italian counters is essential. 

           FIL’S PREDICTION

ITALY 2-2 SWEDEN

Matchday 4 - Italy showed us wrong!

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SPAIN

·         The Player – Andrés Iniesta

 Iniesta was, once again, in the center of Spain’s fortune. After a game where they dominated the play entirely but had a lot of trouble in the moment to pick a shot, Iniesta himself included, but near the end Iniesta found his Barça teammate Gerard Pique in Cech’s box and assisted him perfectly. 
 

·         The Moment – De Gea saves the day

 Certainly De Gea wasn’t expecting such a calm game at his end. Czech Republic preferred to defend and so they barely threatened the Man.Utd keeper, but when they did he was there. Right after

·         The Team

 A very hard game for Spain. They eventually got the win that they deserved, but there were some weakness that showed, mainly the lack of goal instinct in the team. Like they’ve used us to, Spain was perfectly able to carry the ball dangerously near Cech’s goal, but then they were unable to capitalize.
 They got the breakthrough when Pique and Ramos were trying to help, in a sign of how disappointing were the Czechs, that these two could be up front.



 

CZECH REP.

·         The Player – Petr Cech

 With Vrba abandoning its usual style and using, virtually, a line of six defenders, they gave the control of the ball away to Spain, which Del Bosque’s squad then transformed in innumerous chances to score, that always found Petr Cech on the way for glory. Only in the 87 minute he was beaten, by a close range header from Pique

·         The Moment- Selassie’s chance

 It was a great clearance from Fábregas, but more than the moment, it was proof that if Czech Republic tried to come out a little more they could’ve created chances. As it was only in set pieces they did it, and after the goal conceded, but then was too late, especially against a fantastic and focused De Gea.

·         The Team

 When we were expecting Czech Republic try and battle like equal, Vrba had other ideas and decided to go for a simple draw and let it be resolved in the following matches. With four full backs on the pitch, the Czech almost had a defensive line of six players, had little to no possession and dangerous chances lacked.

 A very poor game from Vrba’s team.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

 A very one-sided game, perhaps the most of the Euro so far, and it was all because Czech Republic decided it wanted to try and draw the game, rather than attacking it. It was a poor display, but one that almost worked, due to having a fantastic goalkeeper in Petr Cech.

 Spain played like always, great quality find space but then, in front of goal, such lack of composure, Morata especially on focus in this chapter. It looked like Spain was going down to a disappointing and undeserved draw, when Pique joined the attack and headed a perfect ball from Iniesta.

 It wasn’t easy but Del Bosque’s team did the job and will face Turkey knowing a win will qualify them. And Czech Republic will have to show what brought them here or they risk being one of the disappointments. 

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REP.IRELAND

·         The Player – Jeff Hendrick

 Great game from the Bolton midfielder. Never forgetting his defensive responsibilities, he was never afraid to be the first creative force of the Irish, pushing them forward in their period of dominance that only ended with the goal. Hendrick was a monster, appearing everywhere, and testing Isaksson several times.
 
 

·         The Moment – Hoolahan’s strike

 Great technique in the shot from the Norwich offensive midfielder, after a good cross from the right, Wes Hoolahan hit the ball with such strength, it was impossible for Isaksson to stop it. A deserved goal at the time, as Ireland was dominanting the play fairly easily.

·         The Team

 A promising game for Martin O’Neill, he’ll certainly will be more worried with the fact that his team wasn’t able to hold on to the lead. Until they scored, Ireland was impressive, always quicker to the ball than Swedish players, and creating good chances.
 With Hoolahan’s goal, the team retracted from attacking, allowing Sweden the draw. It was a good match, though, and Ireland must believe they can upset either Belgium or Italy.    



 

SWEDEN

·         The Player – Zlatan Ibrahimovic

The PSG superstar wasn’t at its best. Zlatan didn’t do a bad game, but it was necessary, and expected, that he would bring his team forward, being the big thinker of Sweden’s game, and instead he had less touches than usual, especially on the first half where he really seemed off it, affecting his team.
 With his improvement, the team freed themselves, and was able to get the draw.

·         The Moment- Great play for the draw

  It was the moment where finally Ibra created something decent, and it resulted in Ireland’s defense shaking all over, and Clark’s own goal. After a good play of involvement with two other teammates, Ibra found a good cross that, if Clark wouldn’t, Seb Larsson was ready to finish. He didn’t have to.

·         The Team

  It was enough to draw, but Sweden’s match, especially what they did in the first half, was poor and will mean troubles down the line, should the problem not be sorted. It’s a team that clearly depends too much on Zlatan, and when he’s not at its best, Sweden becomes a docile team, easy to control. That’s what happened until the goal, and then Ibra showed up.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

   An entertaining match, that sometimes lacked quality but compensated in the will the players always put in every single moment. Ireland was fantastic in the first half, always looking to push forward and trouble Sweden’s defenders, which they did regularly.
 They had at least three good chances, and one already in the 2^nd period, before Wes Hoolaan’s goal. After that, a mixture of Zlatan’s anger towards the result, and the Irish midfielders losing gas after all that running, Sweden took back control, and ended up getting the draw.

 It’s a fair result, if you followed the match, but it has to be said, if there was a winner, it was always going to be Republic of Ireland. Sweden needs to try and catch up with Zlatan, or Hamren’s team will be in trouble.

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BELGIUM

·         The Player – Thibaut Courtois

 Surely one of the most furious persons with the exhibition his defense teammates had. It was absolutely appalling and that resulted in Courtois being one of the best players on the pitch, due to the amount of saves he had to made.
 He showed he’s here if Belgium needs him, but he also needs help, as he can’t stop everything
 

·         The Moment – A wasted bet


 It was one of the biggest shocks of the Euro’s so far, not to see Jason Denayer in the starting XI, either at center or right back. Instead, Wilmots went with Laurent Ciman, from Montreal Impact, with catastrophic results, with the first goal being a clear lack of chemistry between him and Alderweireld.

·         The Team

 Horrible display again, leaving a lot of questions that need answer. Wilmots decide to shuffle things again and with horrific results. Against an Italy that was always going to defend, putting Nainggolan, Witsel and Fellaini, that all lack a touch of creativity, Belgium had to rely on Lukaku for central creation, with De Bruyne and Hazard stuck to the respective lines. An awful display that needs correction or surely heads will roll.     


  

ITALY

·         The Player – Graziano Pellé

What a game from the Southampton player. The main reference for Italy’s attack, Pelle was fantastic in doing what’s been doing all year for the Saints, holding the ball and then following his pass, always ready to finish.

He lacks more goalscoring ability, but he never stops trying and got his reward in the end.

·         The Moment- Giacherrini’s goal

 It was bad communication in Belgians defense, sure, but there was the beautiful pass from Bonucci, and Giacherrini’s control and finish were brilliant. Not only that it was a goal that showed that Italy might not have the names, but they surely have a fight in them.

·         The Team

 Conte is a tactical master and it showed. It might be Italy’s weakest generation, but with Chelsea’s new manager in charge, there will be a will and possibly a way to get to European glory. The big test will come when they need to push forward themselves, and not sit to counter. But Pelle showed he wants to shine, and the defense is solid enough to hold anyone.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

   It was a brilliant display of defensive football from the Italian. That does not mean they didn’t create chances, they definitely did and made Courtois shine in defeat.
Counter was on point and with Belgium cracking up completely, Italy dominated the game as they wanted, always seeming more dangerous than Wilmots’ team that only was able to be on top with despair growing.

 Italy shut us all up with a great game. It’s just a little part of the job done, but we can definitely say we were wrong and Italy will be in the knockout stages. As for Belgium, every match is to win or die from now on, but the quality is there, and they have to believe they can do it. 

Belgium vs Italy - preview

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- Latest events

BELGIUM

·         The golden generation of Belgium football faces another big challenge where they are expected to try and emulate the feats of greats like Sfico and Pffaf.   

·         Injuries have taken its toll in Wilmots’ defense, that will attack the competition without his favorite duo in the center of defense, as both Kompany and Lombaerts are out of action due to injury.   

·         Preparation wasn’t superb, with the defensive troubles threatening to destroy all the good work done up front and the Belgian know that they need to fix that if the hope to extend their presence in France    

ITALY

·         It’s the least star-studded Italy in recent memory. Looking at the squad Conte brought to France, it was hard to find an individual highlight, in comparison to some to the greats of Italian football.  

·         Conte knows this is his last chance to leave some impact in the national team, before moving to Chelsea, and he will make everything in his power to shock the World.    

·         Lacking fire power upfront, expect an Italy that will know how to frustrate their opponents in order to get the result they want.    

- Expected Lineups

 

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- Areas to follow

BELGIUM

·         Defense

It’s the great source of problems and doubts for Wilmots. Without his leader, Vincent Kompany, Belgium loses not only a great central defender, but the voice of command, its extension of the manager on the pitch. Alderweireld is likely to swap with Denayer, and come to the center where he excelled at Tottenham.  

·         Midfield

Witsel and Fellaini will probably be the two holding midfielders, responsible to avoid the Italian counters and also carrying the ball forward, as the first stage of attack for Wilmots’ team. With Hazard and Mertens as its wingers, and De Bruyne thinking the game, Belgium has one of the strongest midfield areas from the competition.

·         Attack

Lukaku will be the sole striker, but that doesn’t mean that the Everton striker will not see the ball, as normally he’s the first solution for a long ball, using his power to hold it, awaiting his teammates runs. Needs to regain the form of the beginning of the season, as there are other strikers raring to have a chance.  

             

ITALY

·            Defense

It’s the strongest point for Italy and it will be very helpful if Italy doesn’t want to go out without any headline. Playing all together at Juventus, and with Conte knowing them from his time at Turin, they will have to be at their best to hold the Belgian offensive

·             Midfield

  A line of five without a lot of openings for Conte to fill how he feels best. De Rossi and Darmian seem fairly certain, like Florenzi, but things might change. What is certain is that is not a very creative midfielder, missing someone like Verrati (injured) or Pirlo (left out by choice). It will be a very fighting midfielding outlet, more than elegant.  

·             Attack

Pelle and Eder will be the man in charge of finishing the few chances their team is going to create. Two different players in how they play, they complement each other, as Pelle is an expert in laying the ball to a quick partner, as he done time and time again for Southampton with Shane Long by his side. Éder is Brazilian with Italian passport, so he can only be a better addition to Pelle’s game.

- FIL’S VERDICT

 Not only they were drawn in the group of death, when they face their lowest in quality in the national team, Italy has to start the campaign against the opposite side of the coin. A team that’s young, full of talent, eager to show they can go all the way.

 Conte will have to recreate what he did at Juventus, making the giants great again, and the mission with Italy is going to be even more herculean. To his favor, the players know the tactic, and other teams have difficulty facing it, and Lukaku might be swallowed by the back three.

 Belgium has the perfect opportunity to show Europe that they are ready to be a force, by dismantling Italy. That’s not likely to happen, especially due to their defensive problems, but it’s expected that the Red Devils  start strong and end up winning, against an Italy that will have to overcome themselves if they want to achieve something in France.

FIL’S PREDICTION

BELGIUM 2-1 ITALY