Germany vs Italy - Quarter-final preview

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Germany

 The world champions took a while to start performing to their standard, but when the competition hit the knockout stage, they faced Slovakia – a team that beat them in May – the Germans didn’t flinch and applied their common demolition job, destroying Hamsik and co.’s hopes.

 It hasn’t the been the most glamourous of showings for Joachim Low’s team, with their performances lacking some punch in the group stage, mostly due to the insistence to have Mario Gotze in the striker role. When Low opted to go for Gómez everything started clicking better, and Germany seemed much more like their usual self, and they will need to step up, as they have the hard way to Paris side of the draw.

Italy

 They arrived in France very quietly, facing incredible disbelief and indifference from their own country, with statements like “Worst squad ever” being regularly heard, and with very little hopes of making truth to the name of Italy, especially facing a very tough group and starting against the young and powerful Belgium.
 If there’s something that the Chelsea fans will soon love about Antonio Conte is that he will take all the criticism with a smile and then keep on going with what he believes and, normally, with great results.
 Just look at their opening game in the Euro, against Belgium, where they were expected to have to hold off Wilmots’ team, and ended up dominating the match to gain control of the group. Destiny brought them the task of facing reigining champions Spain, and Italy showed us they are ready to try and go all the way, finishing once and for all the Spanish Era.  

The game

Germany has never won a match against Italy in a big competition. You might think “But that surely happens a lot, as teams don’t face off that often”, and while that’s true, this are two of the greatest Football nations, that always have been contenders, and have played 8 matches, with 4 Italy wins and 4 draws. Lotthar Matthaus admitted that one of the few Germany weaknesses comes when they see they have to face Italy.
 And what Italy they have to face. An Italy that doesn’t have the class of Baggio, Pirlo, Riva, Paolo Rossi, Maldini and many, many others, but what they have is their own BBC. Barzagli, Bonnuci and Chielini play together in Juventus in the back 3 that Conte brought with the Vecchia Signora and they give a tough time to the opponents’ offense. And if they can’t stop them, there’s always Buffon.
 This has all the possibilities of being one of the games of the tournament. Certainly one of the more decisive as one of the best contenders to the title will go home earlier. Low knows this is one of the biggest test he faces in his spell, and if he can break the curse against Italy, then Germany surely won’t stop until they grab the silverware. As for Conte’s squad, they wowed the world with the fantastic game they had against Spain, where they vulgarized Del Bosque and his team. With two very different styles, expect a high-quality, intense match. 

Germany vs Slovakia - Last-16 round preview

                             
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The World Champions arrived in France in a sea of doubt, the results and the exhibitions prior to the competition were not adequate for their status and Low’s choices were being questioned. And then, even though Gotze as striker needed to be corrected during the group stage, Germany arrived to the actual games and did what it does best, dominate and win. They failed to score against Poland, and that was the trick for Goméz to regain his position.

 Slovakia had an irregular campaign so far, but they played fairly well in the first two games, they were on top of Wales for the most part of the game, but with Hamsik not performing well enough, they ended up putting pressure on themselves, pressure that they relished on, dismantling Russia and frustrating England to a draw that ended up with them qualified.

Germany and Slovakia actually met in May, with the Hamsik’s team obtaining an historic victory, but that game was exactly the wake up call that Germany needed, and they will be much readier to face Slovakia this time.

FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Germany 70%-30% Slovakia

Group C analysis - Germany and Poland show force in Ukraine's meltdown

1^st Germany(=FIL’s Prediction)

 Efficient. It’s the best word to define Germany’s group stage, although that can be easily argued, as they missed a lot of the chances they created. But, if you analyze each game, you realize that in the first two games their chances were condemned to Gotze, that was the main striker for Die Maanschafft and had a terrible time at it.

 They still did four points, and with Nor.Ireland they were dominate as expected and were much more the Germany Europe would fear. And all because Low finally put a striker in that position, with Gomez having a fantastic duel with Michael McGovern.

It wasn’t the most spectacular set of games, but Germany did their job without many disruptions, as expected. It’s expected that the Gotze experience is over, and if so, Germany can start plowing through opponents once again 

2^nd Poland (=FIL’s prediction)

In a tournament that seems to be affecting some of the biggest starts, it’s expected that the other players on their teams stand up and try to help. That’s exactly what happened with Poland, as Lewandowski has been tightly marked, to an extent that made him just another number on the pitch.
 Arkadiusz Milik didn’t turn the other cheek, knew that it was expected of him to try and elevate his team, and that’s exactly what he did. In a great moment of form, the Ajax player was able to create a great number of chances, but needs to improve his finishing, as all that just resulted in a goal.

 Poland did a good set of games and is one of the dark horses of the tournament.

3^rd Nor.Ireland (>FIL’s Prediction)

 Another of the many fairytale stories of the tournament, Nor.Ireland is the most herculean of them all. A small team, formed of players that are not used to top leagues, facing three powerhouses, three teams that, in a good day, were always going to win. So the Irish needed to defend like they’ve never defended before, and try to be effective on their dead balls situations.

 Poland and Germany were, as expected, much stronger, but two great defensive showings made sure that Nor.Ireland would only lose those games by a single goal. And, in between those games, the eruption. A game that was marked with a hail thunderstorm, a game where Nor.Ireland was able to annul Ukraine, a team that was barely in France, and score two goals that, with the holding of the two strongest teams of the group, dictated that Northern Ireland would be one of the best 3^rd placed teams and the party can continue.  

4^th Ukraine (<FIL’s Prediction)

 Just a huge disappointment. They had a first game that masked most of their deficiencies, as facing Germany they were expected to lose. But even in that game, you could sense things were not going to go Ukraine’s way. In a match where the Germans were not being dangerous and were struggling in the defensive process, but with Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka completely out of form, their fate was determined.

 Much more of a shock was, obviously, the defeat against Nor.Ireland, a defeat that was deserved due to their inability to disrupt McGovern’s defense. Ukraine needed to show much more, but with that defeat they were out, and will not want to remember they ever were in France. Some will argue they weren’t. 

Group C - Final round preview

How they got here

Germany

The World Champions didn’t enthusiasm but they were efficient in their mission of getting to this stage in the first place of the group. They had troubles in creating chances, mostly due to Low’s insistence in Mario Gotze as his striker. It was especially heartbreaking seeing the small Gotze in the middle of the Polish center backs, without any hope of getting rid of them.

Poland

It was their lack of composure in front of goal, with Milik especially at fault, that impeded them of achieving first place before the last game. In both games he could’ve scored more goals than he actually did. But their consistency has been one of the good highlights of the tournament.

Nor.Ireland

They were protagonists of one of the upsets of the tournament, when they beat Ukraine and guaranteed they will, at least, get the third place. Against Poland, though, they couldn’t attack by any means, and it was worrying for them in anticipation for the rest of the competition.

Ukraine

The first team eliminated of the Euros, in an achievement that is anything short than shameful, Ukraine was a great disappointment. Two games, no goals scored and four conceded, including two against minnows Northern Ireland. Just a forgetful campaign.

What they need

Germany

Expect Germany to try and score a few goals in the second half, so they make sure they don’t risk the first place to a possible thrashing that Poland might inflict on Ukraine. Joachim Low will probably rotate his squad, giving his reserves a chance to impress against a considerably weaker team.

Poland

It’s unlikely that their second place is at risk, as Northern Ireland faces Germany, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Nawalka trying some new options, and try to win the game against Ukraine by a large margin, and try and sneak to the top.

Nor.Ireland

Third place is guaranteed so Michael O’Neill faces an interesting dilemma, as he knows that if he sits back he’ll get defeated, but he cannot lose by a big margin as goal difference might be what qualifies the 3^rd placed teams. It will be a great headache for the manager, that must be cursing the order of the games right now.

Ukraine

Its been an awful time in France, and now they face Poland, a team that’s highly motivated. With nothing to play for, maybe we’ll see the Ukrainians free of pressure and actually providing us with a good match. It’s not very predictable, but one can hope. 

Germany vs Poland - preview

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- Latest events

GERMANY

·         It wasn’t the best of games, but Germany ended up with a secure win, where their mistakes were not transformed into something worse

·         Focus needs to be grander, as Poland is a better team, confident, and that knows how to beat the Germans   

·         Hummels is still a doubt, and his absence might be gold for Lewandowski and Milik

POLAND

·         Adam Nawalka’s squad was brilliant against Northern Ireland, with their only problem being the amount of chances they failed to convert in goal.    

·         Lewandowski was subject to tight marking, but he will surely have more space to play against Germany, which doesn’t mean that it will be easier for him to be dangerous.      

·         Poland knows a win qualifies them, and the win in qualification makes sure that the Polish won’t just try and defend.     

- Areas to follow

GERMANY

·         Defense

Hummels has been injured, and him starting against Poland it’s a question mark that Low will answer by time the games start. The defensive side was a bit underwhelming against Ukraine, letting the opponent create good chances that, with the a better attitude or quality, could have punished Germany

·         Midfield

Kroos was a giant, and one of the main reasons for Germany’s win, as the powerful midfielder was everywhere, demanding the ball from his colleagues, and making the game flow with quality. Khedira needs to step up his game though, as Kroos can be engulfed by the Polish towers.  

·         Attack

Gotze was completely useless in that position of striker, as he has neither the size, potency, culture. Nothing really, and that translated in a shocker of a game that was saved by the two goals his team scored anyway. But this will be a problem down the line for the Germans.

             

POLAND

·            Defense

Barely tested, merit for the Polish defense as, when Nor.Ireland was approaching, they dealt with the threat fairly competently. The game against Germany will, naturally, be much harder and Pazdan and Glik need to confirm they are one of the most solid center back duos in the competition.  

·             Midfield

 Kapustka was sent to the start against Nor.Ireland and he surprised half of the world with his quality, carrying of the ball, and fantastic maturity for a 19yr old. We knew what Kapustka was able to do, but not even us in FIL thought he would be such an influence. But he has the quality, and Cracovia must be relishing a record sell.     

·             Attack

Lewandowski knows the defenders he’s going to play, better than anyone. They know him too, but Lewa knows that, unlike the first game, he won’t be the target of a super-tight h-h marking, and he will have much more space to work with Milik.     

- FIL’S VERDICT

 Germany and Poland won both their games and will now face knowing a win, or even a draw, will probably qualify them. It has the potential to be one of the best games of the group stage of this competition and surely the players won’t disappoint.

 A lot of the game will be dependent of Hummels’ physical condition, as if he plays Lewandowski and Milik will have much more trouble in creating chances. But it won’t be impossible, Kapustka is a player that can play between the lines and be creative outlet Poland needs to surprise Germany again.

 Low’s team had a secure game and will want to win, in order to prove they are ready to lift the trophy, but they face a good opposition that plays very well against the high line the Germans will use. A great game in perpective.

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

GERMANY 2-1 POLAND

Matchday 3 - Germany dominant, Croatia and Poland show promise

0-1

Headlines

TURKEY

·         The Player – Arda Turan

Clearly accusing the lack of football in the beginning of the season, Arda Turan started on the left side and was never able to leave that side, as he had a lot to worry in Dario Srna. In the attack, he never could make an impact, looking sluggish and out of form. A worry, Turan needs to improve if Turkey has any hope of qualification
 
 

·         The Moment – Çalhanoglu’s free kicks

With the Leverkusen’s playmaker ability for dead ball, this should’ve been one the ways for Turkey to create danger, and they were just wasted. Maybe due to some big stage freight, Çalhanoglu created little to no danger in those situations and just had a bad display in general.

·         The Team

 If felt that Terim’s team could’ve done better with Yilmaz playing from the beginning, with his experience and physicality being a good way to try and break down the fighting duo of Corluka and Vida. Turkey looked always the weaker side, never being able to control possession like they are used to, and need to improve considerably for the next two games.  



 

CROATIA

·         The Player – Marcelo Brozović

 Wasn’t the best player on the pitch, but the Inter Milan man was a real threat from the left side, enjoying tons of space left in the back of his direct opponent. With pace, good ball control, he needed more composure to finish one of those chances he had. If he can improve that side of his game, Croatia became ferocious.

·         The Moment- Modric’s strike

 It was the only goal of the game, and what a goal it was. After a badly dealt cross, Luka Modric saw the ball bouncing ahead of him and summoned up all the strengths in his right foot to beat Volkan. A great shot to decide a game that Croatia controlled.

·         The Team

Great game for Croatia to shut the voices that stated they don’t deal well with the big stage. Controlling, strong, always comfortable in possession and creating chance, after chance. It was a very similar game to the one England had, with the bonus of not being stunned in the end.

 Badelj was chosen, moving Brozovic to the right where he proved he can be an influence and another source of danger for the Croats.

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- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Croatia fully deserved the win in Paris, after a fantastic display of control, strength and desire. With Modric being an inspiration, defending and attacking with the same quality, Cacic’s team started cracking Turkey by occupying the spaces between the full back and the center back from that side. Perisic and Brozovic were great in that aspect, with Srna using the space in front of him, with Rakitic playing mainly through the center.
 Turkey never had a grip on the game, Turan had troubles with Srna, Çalhanoglu had bad decisions all day and Tosun was deployed ahead of Yilmaz with no effect showing.
 In a tight group, Turkey will be happy to only having conceding one goal, when they saw the ball hit Volkan’s post twice more, and allowed so many chance. If they get back some offensive mojo they can hope. Croatia did their job and will be confident going forward

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1-0

Headlines

POLAND

·         The Player – Arkadiuz Milik

Great game from the Ajax striker. In a match that required him to be active, as Lewandowski was engulfed by Evans’ individual marking, Milik was brilliant charging forward, creating chances for his teammates and missing a couple in the 1^st half before redeeming himself with the winner in the 51th minute.
 
 

·         The Moment – The goal that made the difference

 It was a great ball from Krichowiak that opened up the defense. Kuba, on the right wing, saw Lewandowski drowning in green, but just outside the area was Milik, that got the ball, adjusted and banged it into the net for a very important win.

·         The Team

  In a match where it was known from the beginning that Lewandowski would be the target of special attention, Nawalka decided not to risk Grosicki, that came of injured, and instead threw Kapustka on the spotlight. The Legia Warsaw player, and our choice for Poland’s breakout star, did a fantastic game, alongside Milik, cracking the Nor.Ireland defense open several times, and winning the opening match of the Euro, for the first time in Poland history.
 The expected win, maybe with less goals than expected, but enough.



 

NOR.IRELAND

·         The Player – Jonny Evans

  Did his job very well, in charge of marking Lewandowski. He never let go of the Bayern striker, always putting in an extra tackle or push, while frustrating his opponent. The biggest complement he can have is that Lewa had no chance to influence the game.

·         The Moment- Lafferty’s creation

 In a very hard match for him, mostly left alone until Poland scored, Lafferty barely touched the ball, let alone had chances to do any danger. It was like, if he wanted to score, he would have to do everything, create and shoot. And so, after a ball pumped into him, he teed up a bicycle kick that was well executed but not so dangerous. A perfect image of how hard it was for the northern Irish to create chances.  

·         The Team

 Very weak showing, with a lot of man in the back, and never able to go out and create some chances for goal. Nor.Ireland never seemed to be able to create any danger near the Polish penalty area and with Nawalka’s team making a great effort in avoiding giving them any set pieces, the northern Irish never had a chance.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Poland was always going to win the game if they were able to score a goal. When Milik found yards of space just outside the box, in the 51th minute, he striked it with precision, like he wasn’t able to do in the first half. With Lewandowski alone in a sea of green, it was up to Milik and the wingers, Kuba and Kapustka, to find the big man and with little changes of the ball, face the goal and test Michael McGovern.

 Northern Ireland defended a lot, not particularly well in truth, and was completely unable to create any sort of danger. Lafferty was alone for a long time, never had a chance to score, and even dead ball situations were lacking.

 Adan Nawalka will be happy with the match, probably just wishing he would’ve scored more goals, as it feels that Nor.Ireland might have the same troubles with the other opponents, and those results can determine the final table of Group C. 

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2-0

Headlines

GERMANY

·         The Player – Toni Kroos

 Dominant play in the midfield by the Real Madrid midfielder. Toni Kroos made the assist for Hector’s goal and he created the flow of Germany’s game, with the usual skill in passing, both short and long. His influence declined when Ukraine started correcting the timings of pressure and marking, but he was the most consistent German in the pitch.
 
 

·         The Moment – Defensive set pieces

 A constant source of worry for Joachim Low, it threatens to thwart Germany’s chances if it’s not corrected in time for the knockout stages. Germany has a relatively low defensive line, more evident with Hummels out injured, and Ukraine created a lot of dangerous situations, that a more prolific team would’ve, likely, capitalize on.

·         The Team

  Germany didn’t have the best of games, but they did the job and ended up with three points, matching Poland on top of the group. The World Champions started very strong, clearly looking for an opening that would lead to an early goal, so they could draw Ukraine out.
 The defensive side was a worry, allowing Ukraine’s confidence to grow and endanger a win that should’ve been guaranteed earlier.



 

UKRAINE

·         The Player – Andriy Iarmolenko

 Completely out of the game, only showed his skills once, when he found his fellow winger Konoplyanka alone by the six-yard box. Apart from that moment it was a complete lack of ideas from both wings, with Iarmolenko being the worst of the two with very few touches on the ball and adding nothing noteworthy.    

·         The Moment- Konoplyanka fluffes it

    It was a rare moment of brilliance from Iarmolenko, and Konoplyanka just had to wrap his foot around the ball and beat Neuer. Everyone will remember the great acrobatic clearance from Boateng, but the Sevilla winger completely missed the shot, and the opportunity to draw the game.

·         The Team

  It took them half an hour to correct the markings, and when they did it they were already losing. They had a good spell in the first half, reacting well and creating danger from corners and missing that great chance from Konoplyanka. Unfortunately they ran out of gas in the 2^nd half, and ended up conceding the second goal right at the end

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

  Effective but without brilliance, could be a title for the game Germany produce in Lille. The start gave us the idea that the friendlies were just friendlies, and Germany would make it count when it matters. They did, materializing their dominance with a good goal from Mustafi, after an assist from Kroos.
 The Real Madrid player was the man of the match, always demanding the ball to make things happen for a Germany that lacked a bigger physical presence in the middle of the center backs. Gotze is a great player, but is not a center forward in any shape or form and it showed.
 Ukraine had a mediocre game, creating some chances due to the defensive set pieces troubles Low’s squad faced throughout the whole match but never capitalizing, and uninspired in open play. With a bit more killer instinct it could’ve been a different story.

 Germany know that the same kind of mistakes against Poland will be fatal, but have enjoyed a routine win and are gaining confidence back. Ukraine will face a crucial match with Northern Ireland to keep qualification hopes alive. 

Germany vs Ukraine - preview

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- Latest events

GERMANY

·         Qualification was very lackluster and the Germans continued the preparation for the Euro varying between normality and shocking exibitions. You’d feel Germany will be better when it counts, but it’s been underwhelming so far.

·         Lahm is being missed, as it’s now very clear he was the glue that united this solid group that now lacks a leader, and seems to play with such over-confidence, it hurts them.   

·         Strikerless or with Gómez, sometimes the German game can get too predictable and easier to avoid, but they still have a great squad in names and will want to begin strongly.

UKRAINE

·         Ukraine was one of the teams that impressed in preparation, confirming that this new generation of attacking players can give them something more than Shevchenko’s.   

·         On the flipside, Pyatov was appalling against Romania and the defense is still very positional and has trouble dealing with speedy forwards.     

·         They will have a difficult time against Germany if the midfield does not do their job in pressing the German creators in Ozil and Kroos.    

- Expected Lineups

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- Areas to follow

GERMANY

·         Defense

Lahm retiring from the national team created several troubles for Germany. Not only the little man was the captain and leader, his versatility was invaluable, as he could play full back in both sides and as holding midfielder. Now it’s a big question who’s going to be the right-back, with Hummels and Boateng starting the partnership they’ll like create at Bayern.

·         Midfield

It’s an experienced, winning midfield, with Ozil being the brain that muscle Khedira and nerves Kroos hold together. A lot of short passing, a lot of movement, with Muller and Draxler getting involved from the wings, looking to keep going forward and scoring a goal. The signs in the friendlies weren’t brilliant, Germany did not seem as lethal, so more commitment is required.   

·         Attack

You can’t help but wonder “what if Lewandowski was German?” -  It would be a good exercise, but not for Joachim Low that needs to find a solution for German problems that started in Brazil still. If you remember, they had troubles scoring thorough the competition, until they had magical night in Maracana. It’s either Gómez, Gotze or Schurrle, and all of them have quality but lack finishing prowess.

             

UKRAINE

·            Defense

Clearly the weak spot of this Ukrainian side, they’re going to have a game where they’ll be tested constantly. It will require them to get strengths they never thought it would be possible, as they’ll deal with the German powerhouses bombing forward and they can hurt you if you don’t focus enough.

·             Midfield

 It’s likely that Kovalenko should be rested for a more powerful midfielding area, to be able to stop Kroos and Ozil picking up their advanced forwards. Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko play a crucial role in this game, as it will be required a much bigger defensive commitment of them than usual. It’s not something the wingers are comfortable in, but it’s absolutely crucial that they do.    

·             Attack

Zozulya is a powerful striker the Germans would love to have. He holds the ball extremely well, patiently waiting for his teammates to follow the ball movement and help him up front. He’s going to be extra precise in his movements today, as often he’ll be in an island of Maanschaft defenders, but he’ll make them sweat.     

- FIL’S VERDICT

 There are many, many doubts if Germany will be capable to repeat the exhibitions that lead them to title in Brazil. Or even the results, as they didn’t produce that many magic moments, apart from the one that will be remember forever.

 Ukraine gets here without any expectation of massive glory, but they have quality players that, in a good day, can create an upset. It will have to be a very solidary and compact team, defending together and being quick to go on counter, with Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka looking to take advantage of the weakness at the full backs Germany faces.

 Germany are stronger, more experienced, and will probably end up with the win in this opening match, but if anyone is expecting another 1-7, forget it. This Germany is flawed and will have to be at their best to beat Ukraine.

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

GERMANY 2-1 UKRAINE