Group D analysis - Croatia is ready to ride to Paris

1^st Croatia (=FIL’s Prediction)

 Once again they slipped under the cracks, without anyone really paying attention to them, but Croatia showed, once again, they are a very good team and can beat anyone, in a good day.
 We had expected that Croatia would surprise Europe by doing more points than Spain and they did confirm that, even if they still tried to outdone themselves, with the draw conceded so late with Czech Republic.

 In the last game of the group, they faced Spain and Cacic decided to rest his squad for the knockout stage. With devastating results for the European Champions, as Croatia dominated the match and got the rewarding late goal that put them where we, and very few others, expected.

2^nd Spain (=FIL’s prediction)

Rollercoaster of emotions for Spain, which is something they surely don’t relish. After all, inconsistency was the main issue with La Roja until Guardiola created the system that most fitted the Spanish team. Now, with teams learning how to counter it, Spain seems to be regressing emotionally.

 They had a frustrating game against Czech Republic, a game that should’ve been won much sooner that they were able to, but were great with Turkey. In that game it looked like Del Bosque’s team was completely back to their old form, Morata showed he’s ready to be a proper striker, not a false nine.

 But the problems were just coming, as with Croatia – a rotated but well-oiled Croatia – Spain was not able to guarantee the first place they had in the beginning of the match. Ramos missed a penalty and Croatia was able to pierce through Spanish defense too often, in a game that put Spain in a very tricky part of the draw of the knockouts.

3^rd Turkey (>FIL’s Prediction)

 Very disappointing performance for Turkey, in part because of Barcelona’s inability to use Turan until January. It sounds weird, but the two were definitely related, as Turkey’s main star always seemed out of the game, much focused on what was going outside the pitch of play, even stopping counter attacks to reach to being booed.

 Turkey did not scratch both Spain and Croatia, but they still believed in a miraculous qualification, which they couldn’t get. But they did show they could’ve done much more, had they played like in the last game.

4^th Czech Rep. (<FIL’s Prediction)

 Pavel Vrba was one of the main disappointments for us at FIL, especially with his strategy to play Spain. Instead of trying to play the game, just like they did in the qualification stage, Czech Republic went to play with four full-backs, opted to never attack and try to get the point.

 It almost worked, though, with Piqué’s goal coming in the 87^th minute of the game, after Cech made a number of world-class saves. This result made Czechs were obliged to win at least one of the two next games, but they were almost destroyed by Croatia, surviving by Vida’s lack of sense. And when they needed to win and achieve the 3^rd place, but they were overrun by Turkey, making sure Czech Rep was going out with nothing good to remember

Group D - Final round preview

How they got here

Spain

After an opening match where they had a lot of trouble forcing into the Czech defense, they had a very scintillating match against Turkey, where they showed they are ready to defend their title, if Morata can keep the good form showed.

Croatia

One of the most exciting teams in the first two rounds, they efforts were undone by their fans and that handball from Vida. If all that hadn’t happened, they would be qualified, as it is their second place is even at risk, but qualification should be just a matter of filling in the blanks.

Czech Rep.

A big disappointment, Vrba’s team. We expected them to light up the group stage, much like they did in qualification, but Vrba’s team has been a shadow of themselves, opting to defend and try to hold points. They almost lost all six points, until Domagoj Vida’s moment of madness

Turkey

It was always going to be hard for Terim’s team, but some people were expecting Turkey to create more troubles to the group leaders than they actually did. Against Spain, especially, Turkey’s exhibition was forgetful at best.  

What they need

Spain

Spain will want to confirm their main contender status, by guaranteeing the first place of a hard-fought group where it was expected Del Bosque’s team to have more difficulties. The toughest game comes now, though, and it will be Spain’s first big test in the competition.

Croatia

The late draw against Czech Republic just confirmed what was expected, Croatia will have to defeat Spain if they want to qualify in the first place in the strongest group of the Euros. Ante Cacic’s team hasn’t confirmed second place yet, which they will do with the draw, so the Croats might be tempted to try and sit back for this game.

Czech Rep.

Do or die for Czech Republic, and Vrba’s team has the upper hand over Turkey, as they at least got a point, and their star didn’t stop a counter to protest against the critics – like Turan did. Still, this game will be an absolute final for both teams, where a win is needed to keeping dreaming with a place in the knockout stages. 

Turkey

In a match that’s more like a final, Turkey has very few positives to take to this game. They haven’t been playing well, Arda Turan is not completely focused, and when he’s off of it, he’s really a spike on the Turkish wheel. To their good memories, though, must be the epic 2-3 match, against the Czechs, that gave Turkey qualification en route to the semi’s. If they can recreate that spirit, Terim’s team still has pretty much everything to fight for. 

Spain vs Turkey - preview

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- Latest events

SPAIN

·         They had to battle hard, very hard, to break down the gigantic Czech bus, but with the help of Pique Spain eventually got the win.   

·         Spain’s game was predictable but with some intensity that was lacking in Brazil, and the overload in the second half wasn’t more prolific because of Cech.

·         It was great for Spain to get that goal, as confidence will be flying now, to try and achieve an historic three-peat.   

TURKEY

·         Arda Turan came out after the game to apologize for the quality of his match, and it was something that he needed to do, as he just wasn’t present.

·         He wasn’t the only one though, as Turkey attack was clearly uninspired, unable to create noteworthy chances, and putting their backline under pressure with bad transitions.    

·         If they get their act together, they might have a chance, because the defense was fairly safe, and are ready for another battle.    

- Areas to follow

SPAIN

·         Defense

Del Bosque opted for the more experienced Juanfran over Bellerín and is not expected that he will change his backline. They were barely tested anyway, are a quality bunch that has played together a lot of times, so Del Bosque should keep everything as it is.   

·         Midfield

It was just as expected, a lot of the ball, always near the last third, but then unable to end it in a goal. That is more related to the finishing moment than to their ability to create spaces, but Iniesta, Silva and all those other magicians will have to be even more accurate.

·         Attack

Morata is not a goal scorer, but he has a will like no other, he will do everything to get the goal, but he lacks the composure. Also Morata is a player that has a better time facing the goal, not with his back to it. He should play again, and surely a goal will appear, as Turkey, at least, doesn’t have a Petr Cech.  

             

TURKEY

·            Defense

   They did a good job against Mandzukic, but the quick and low-gravity centered Spanish players are much harder to deal for Turkey’s big, slow defenders. If they work together they can close down the space, but they will face huge pressure throughout the game and it’s not predictable they will hold.

·             Midfield

Arda Turan and his sector companions will have to be fully ready to run and chase the ball, as they will rarely see it. They will have to be strong on the tackle, in a fair but intimidator enough to scare Spain. Going to attack, they have to quick and much, much more effective than what they did against Croatia

·             Attack

   Burak Yilmaz was just used as a sub in the first match, but we feel that he could be perfect for Fatih Terim to try and steal this game. With his presence and the offensive nature of Spain’s full backs, Burak can be unleashed with a long ball, as he has the ability to hold it for its teammates run. We’ll see how Terim’s thinking.

- FIL’S VERDICT

It will be a tight game again. Turkey will think if they can get a point against Spain they will still be in it because a win from their last game could be enough to take them through, but they should not renegade to attack as did Czech Republic, because Spain will create enough chances to score one. The Spanish were, if anything, wasteful and if they correct that aspect, they should get a comfortable win, as Turkey’s defense faces the worst matchup for their characteristics.

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

SPAIN 2-0 TURKEY

Czech Rep vs Croatia - preview

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- Latest events

CZECH REP.

·         Pavel Vrba disappointed whoever – like us – was expecting the vibrant, attack minded team that we know Czech Republic can be.

·         Instead he got a defensive, bus parked team, who deployed four full backs and allowed Spain to control possession.   

·         It can only get better, and it has too, as the draw they wanted didn’t come making this two matches seem like finals.  

CROATIA

·         Croatia confirmed what’s expected from them, a strong, bulk team, that loves to have the ball and create danger with it.   

·         Turkey was easily dispatched, with a scoreline that definitely does not translate the flow of play of the match.    

·         Ante Cacic will want to win the game, as assuring qualification before playing Spain is the best outcome Croatia could’ve imagined.   

- Areas to follow

CZECH REP.

·         Defense

It wasn’t a thrashing but, it has to be said, it couldn’t have been as not only Czech Republic defend in grand numbers, they also have in their ranks that youngster by the name of Petr Cech. The Arsenal keeper was enormous and assured his team that he will be present for the rest of the competition.

·         Midfield

Without any real support on the wings, the three players responsible to try and pressure Spain’s first stage of possession. But with an aging Rosicky that is only a factor with the ball, they were engulfed and couldn’t create anything relevant.

·         Attack

Necid will be happy to know that his team needs to win, as that assures him more touches that he was able to have against Spain. Czech Republic needs to come back from that horrid game and create something, or they will come home without any thing to remember.   

             

CROATIA

·            Defense

Corluka and Vida – returned to his natural central position – were essential for Croatia to win against Turkey, as any attempts that Fatih Terim’s would have were dealt brilliantly by the duo. Srna was also very precise, with his presence in the attack being also felt.  

·             Midfield

Modric, Rakitic, Brozovic, Perisic. These four created something special for Croatia, and after the great game against Turkey, we definitely feel they are a dark horse for the tournament. They have power, flair, know how to defend, and have in Mandzukic the perfect pairing. Modric was a giant and if keeps it up, Croatia can shock the world.   

·             Attack

“Mandzukic loves a good duel and he’ll be happy to move away from the center backs to give a little touch and open up space for his teammates to come forward and help him out creating danger.“ Juventus’ striker confirmed what we expected, being a factor with his touch-and-go style play and intimidating with his physical presence. A force to be reckoned.

- FIL’S VERDICT

 The quality of the game will be largely dependent on how Croatia will face the game. The draw is not awful, but we doubt that Cacic will want that, especially knowing that his team will face Spain in the last round.

 If that’s confirmed, and with Czech Republic’s need of a win, expect a lot of attack and a very physical game, with players that also know what to do with the ball. With the great game they had, it feels that Croatia will probably edge this game, as they also boast more variety to attack the opponent’s goal.

FIL’S PREDICTION

CZECH REP. 1-2 CROATIA

Matchday 4 - Italy showed us wrong!

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Headlines

SPAIN

·         The Player – Andrés Iniesta

 Iniesta was, once again, in the center of Spain’s fortune. After a game where they dominated the play entirely but had a lot of trouble in the moment to pick a shot, Iniesta himself included, but near the end Iniesta found his Barça teammate Gerard Pique in Cech’s box and assisted him perfectly. 
 

·         The Moment – De Gea saves the day

 Certainly De Gea wasn’t expecting such a calm game at his end. Czech Republic preferred to defend and so they barely threatened the Man.Utd keeper, but when they did he was there. Right after

·         The Team

 A very hard game for Spain. They eventually got the win that they deserved, but there were some weakness that showed, mainly the lack of goal instinct in the team. Like they’ve used us to, Spain was perfectly able to carry the ball dangerously near Cech’s goal, but then they were unable to capitalize.
 They got the breakthrough when Pique and Ramos were trying to help, in a sign of how disappointing were the Czechs, that these two could be up front.



 

CZECH REP.

·         The Player – Petr Cech

 With Vrba abandoning its usual style and using, virtually, a line of six defenders, they gave the control of the ball away to Spain, which Del Bosque’s squad then transformed in innumerous chances to score, that always found Petr Cech on the way for glory. Only in the 87 minute he was beaten, by a close range header from Pique

·         The Moment- Selassie’s chance

 It was a great clearance from Fábregas, but more than the moment, it was proof that if Czech Republic tried to come out a little more they could’ve created chances. As it was only in set pieces they did it, and after the goal conceded, but then was too late, especially against a fantastic and focused De Gea.

·         The Team

 When we were expecting Czech Republic try and battle like equal, Vrba had other ideas and decided to go for a simple draw and let it be resolved in the following matches. With four full backs on the pitch, the Czech almost had a defensive line of six players, had little to no possession and dangerous chances lacked.

 A very poor game from Vrba’s team.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

 A very one-sided game, perhaps the most of the Euro so far, and it was all because Czech Republic decided it wanted to try and draw the game, rather than attacking it. It was a poor display, but one that almost worked, due to having a fantastic goalkeeper in Petr Cech.

 Spain played like always, great quality find space but then, in front of goal, such lack of composure, Morata especially on focus in this chapter. It looked like Spain was going down to a disappointing and undeserved draw, when Pique joined the attack and headed a perfect ball from Iniesta.

 It wasn’t easy but Del Bosque’s team did the job and will face Turkey knowing a win will qualify them. And Czech Republic will have to show what brought them here or they risk being one of the disappointments. 

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Headlines

REP.IRELAND

·         The Player – Jeff Hendrick

 Great game from the Bolton midfielder. Never forgetting his defensive responsibilities, he was never afraid to be the first creative force of the Irish, pushing them forward in their period of dominance that only ended with the goal. Hendrick was a monster, appearing everywhere, and testing Isaksson several times.
 
 

·         The Moment – Hoolahan’s strike

 Great technique in the shot from the Norwich offensive midfielder, after a good cross from the right, Wes Hoolahan hit the ball with such strength, it was impossible for Isaksson to stop it. A deserved goal at the time, as Ireland was dominanting the play fairly easily.

·         The Team

 A promising game for Martin O’Neill, he’ll certainly will be more worried with the fact that his team wasn’t able to hold on to the lead. Until they scored, Ireland was impressive, always quicker to the ball than Swedish players, and creating good chances.
 With Hoolahan’s goal, the team retracted from attacking, allowing Sweden the draw. It was a good match, though, and Ireland must believe they can upset either Belgium or Italy.    



 

SWEDEN

·         The Player – Zlatan Ibrahimovic

The PSG superstar wasn’t at its best. Zlatan didn’t do a bad game, but it was necessary, and expected, that he would bring his team forward, being the big thinker of Sweden’s game, and instead he had less touches than usual, especially on the first half where he really seemed off it, affecting his team.
 With his improvement, the team freed themselves, and was able to get the draw.

·         The Moment- Great play for the draw

  It was the moment where finally Ibra created something decent, and it resulted in Ireland’s defense shaking all over, and Clark’s own goal. After a good play of involvement with two other teammates, Ibra found a good cross that, if Clark wouldn’t, Seb Larsson was ready to finish. He didn’t have to.

·         The Team

  It was enough to draw, but Sweden’s match, especially what they did in the first half, was poor and will mean troubles down the line, should the problem not be sorted. It’s a team that clearly depends too much on Zlatan, and when he’s not at its best, Sweden becomes a docile team, easy to control. That’s what happened until the goal, and then Ibra showed up.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

   An entertaining match, that sometimes lacked quality but compensated in the will the players always put in every single moment. Ireland was fantastic in the first half, always looking to push forward and trouble Sweden’s defenders, which they did regularly.
 They had at least three good chances, and one already in the 2^nd period, before Wes Hoolaan’s goal. After that, a mixture of Zlatan’s anger towards the result, and the Irish midfielders losing gas after all that running, Sweden took back control, and ended up getting the draw.

 It’s a fair result, if you followed the match, but it has to be said, if there was a winner, it was always going to be Republic of Ireland. Sweden needs to try and catch up with Zlatan, or Hamren’s team will be in trouble.

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BELGIUM

·         The Player – Thibaut Courtois

 Surely one of the most furious persons with the exhibition his defense teammates had. It was absolutely appalling and that resulted in Courtois being one of the best players on the pitch, due to the amount of saves he had to made.
 He showed he’s here if Belgium needs him, but he also needs help, as he can’t stop everything
 

·         The Moment – A wasted bet


 It was one of the biggest shocks of the Euro’s so far, not to see Jason Denayer in the starting XI, either at center or right back. Instead, Wilmots went with Laurent Ciman, from Montreal Impact, with catastrophic results, with the first goal being a clear lack of chemistry between him and Alderweireld.

·         The Team

 Horrible display again, leaving a lot of questions that need answer. Wilmots decide to shuffle things again and with horrific results. Against an Italy that was always going to defend, putting Nainggolan, Witsel and Fellaini, that all lack a touch of creativity, Belgium had to rely on Lukaku for central creation, with De Bruyne and Hazard stuck to the respective lines. An awful display that needs correction or surely heads will roll.     


  

ITALY

·         The Player – Graziano Pellé

What a game from the Southampton player. The main reference for Italy’s attack, Pelle was fantastic in doing what’s been doing all year for the Saints, holding the ball and then following his pass, always ready to finish.

He lacks more goalscoring ability, but he never stops trying and got his reward in the end.

·         The Moment- Giacherrini’s goal

 It was bad communication in Belgians defense, sure, but there was the beautiful pass from Bonucci, and Giacherrini’s control and finish were brilliant. Not only that it was a goal that showed that Italy might not have the names, but they surely have a fight in them.

·         The Team

 Conte is a tactical master and it showed. It might be Italy’s weakest generation, but with Chelsea’s new manager in charge, there will be a will and possibly a way to get to European glory. The big test will come when they need to push forward themselves, and not sit to counter. But Pelle showed he wants to shine, and the defense is solid enough to hold anyone.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

   It was a brilliant display of defensive football from the Italian. That does not mean they didn’t create chances, they definitely did and made Courtois shine in defeat.
Counter was on point and with Belgium cracking up completely, Italy dominated the game as they wanted, always seeming more dangerous than Wilmots’ team that only was able to be on top with despair growing.

 Italy shut us all up with a great game. It’s just a little part of the job done, but we can definitely say we were wrong and Italy will be in the knockout stages. As for Belgium, every match is to win or die from now on, but the quality is there, and they have to believe they can do it.