Group D analysis - Croatia is ready to ride to Paris

1^st Croatia (=FIL’s Prediction)

 Once again they slipped under the cracks, without anyone really paying attention to them, but Croatia showed, once again, they are a very good team and can beat anyone, in a good day.
 We had expected that Croatia would surprise Europe by doing more points than Spain and they did confirm that, even if they still tried to outdone themselves, with the draw conceded so late with Czech Republic.

 In the last game of the group, they faced Spain and Cacic decided to rest his squad for the knockout stage. With devastating results for the European Champions, as Croatia dominated the match and got the rewarding late goal that put them where we, and very few others, expected.

2^nd Spain (=FIL’s prediction)

Rollercoaster of emotions for Spain, which is something they surely don’t relish. After all, inconsistency was the main issue with La Roja until Guardiola created the system that most fitted the Spanish team. Now, with teams learning how to counter it, Spain seems to be regressing emotionally.

 They had a frustrating game against Czech Republic, a game that should’ve been won much sooner that they were able to, but were great with Turkey. In that game it looked like Del Bosque’s team was completely back to their old form, Morata showed he’s ready to be a proper striker, not a false nine.

 But the problems were just coming, as with Croatia – a rotated but well-oiled Croatia – Spain was not able to guarantee the first place they had in the beginning of the match. Ramos missed a penalty and Croatia was able to pierce through Spanish defense too often, in a game that put Spain in a very tricky part of the draw of the knockouts.

3^rd Turkey (>FIL’s Prediction)

 Very disappointing performance for Turkey, in part because of Barcelona’s inability to use Turan until January. It sounds weird, but the two were definitely related, as Turkey’s main star always seemed out of the game, much focused on what was going outside the pitch of play, even stopping counter attacks to reach to being booed.

 Turkey did not scratch both Spain and Croatia, but they still believed in a miraculous qualification, which they couldn’t get. But they did show they could’ve done much more, had they played like in the last game.

4^th Czech Rep. (<FIL’s Prediction)

 Pavel Vrba was one of the main disappointments for us at FIL, especially with his strategy to play Spain. Instead of trying to play the game, just like they did in the qualification stage, Czech Republic went to play with four full-backs, opted to never attack and try to get the point.

 It almost worked, though, with Piqué’s goal coming in the 87^th minute of the game, after Cech made a number of world-class saves. This result made Czechs were obliged to win at least one of the two next games, but they were almost destroyed by Croatia, surviving by Vida’s lack of sense. And when they needed to win and achieve the 3^rd place, but they were overrun by Turkey, making sure Czech Rep was going out with nothing good to remember

Group D - Final round preview

How they got here

Spain

After an opening match where they had a lot of trouble forcing into the Czech defense, they had a very scintillating match against Turkey, where they showed they are ready to defend their title, if Morata can keep the good form showed.

Croatia

One of the most exciting teams in the first two rounds, they efforts were undone by their fans and that handball from Vida. If all that hadn’t happened, they would be qualified, as it is their second place is even at risk, but qualification should be just a matter of filling in the blanks.

Czech Rep.

A big disappointment, Vrba’s team. We expected them to light up the group stage, much like they did in qualification, but Vrba’s team has been a shadow of themselves, opting to defend and try to hold points. They almost lost all six points, until Domagoj Vida’s moment of madness

Turkey

It was always going to be hard for Terim’s team, but some people were expecting Turkey to create more troubles to the group leaders than they actually did. Against Spain, especially, Turkey’s exhibition was forgetful at best.  

What they need

Spain

Spain will want to confirm their main contender status, by guaranteeing the first place of a hard-fought group where it was expected Del Bosque’s team to have more difficulties. The toughest game comes now, though, and it will be Spain’s first big test in the competition.

Croatia

The late draw against Czech Republic just confirmed what was expected, Croatia will have to defeat Spain if they want to qualify in the first place in the strongest group of the Euros. Ante Cacic’s team hasn’t confirmed second place yet, which they will do with the draw, so the Croats might be tempted to try and sit back for this game.

Czech Rep.

Do or die for Czech Republic, and Vrba’s team has the upper hand over Turkey, as they at least got a point, and their star didn’t stop a counter to protest against the critics – like Turan did. Still, this game will be an absolute final for both teams, where a win is needed to keeping dreaming with a place in the knockout stages. 

Turkey

In a match that’s more like a final, Turkey has very few positives to take to this game. They haven’t been playing well, Arda Turan is not completely focused, and when he’s off of it, he’s really a spike on the Turkish wheel. To their good memories, though, must be the epic 2-3 match, against the Czechs, that gave Turkey qualification en route to the semi’s. If they can recreate that spirit, Terim’s team still has pretty much everything to fight for. 

Spain vs Turkey - preview

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- Latest events

SPAIN

·         They had to battle hard, very hard, to break down the gigantic Czech bus, but with the help of Pique Spain eventually got the win.   

·         Spain’s game was predictable but with some intensity that was lacking in Brazil, and the overload in the second half wasn’t more prolific because of Cech.

·         It was great for Spain to get that goal, as confidence will be flying now, to try and achieve an historic three-peat.   

TURKEY

·         Arda Turan came out after the game to apologize for the quality of his match, and it was something that he needed to do, as he just wasn’t present.

·         He wasn’t the only one though, as Turkey attack was clearly uninspired, unable to create noteworthy chances, and putting their backline under pressure with bad transitions.    

·         If they get their act together, they might have a chance, because the defense was fairly safe, and are ready for another battle.    

- Areas to follow

SPAIN

·         Defense

Del Bosque opted for the more experienced Juanfran over Bellerín and is not expected that he will change his backline. They were barely tested anyway, are a quality bunch that has played together a lot of times, so Del Bosque should keep everything as it is.   

·         Midfield

It was just as expected, a lot of the ball, always near the last third, but then unable to end it in a goal. That is more related to the finishing moment than to their ability to create spaces, but Iniesta, Silva and all those other magicians will have to be even more accurate.

·         Attack

Morata is not a goal scorer, but he has a will like no other, he will do everything to get the goal, but he lacks the composure. Also Morata is a player that has a better time facing the goal, not with his back to it. He should play again, and surely a goal will appear, as Turkey, at least, doesn’t have a Petr Cech.  

             

TURKEY

·            Defense

   They did a good job against Mandzukic, but the quick and low-gravity centered Spanish players are much harder to deal for Turkey’s big, slow defenders. If they work together they can close down the space, but they will face huge pressure throughout the game and it’s not predictable they will hold.

·             Midfield

Arda Turan and his sector companions will have to be fully ready to run and chase the ball, as they will rarely see it. They will have to be strong on the tackle, in a fair but intimidator enough to scare Spain. Going to attack, they have to quick and much, much more effective than what they did against Croatia

·             Attack

   Burak Yilmaz was just used as a sub in the first match, but we feel that he could be perfect for Fatih Terim to try and steal this game. With his presence and the offensive nature of Spain’s full backs, Burak can be unleashed with a long ball, as he has the ability to hold it for its teammates run. We’ll see how Terim’s thinking.

- FIL’S VERDICT

It will be a tight game again. Turkey will think if they can get a point against Spain they will still be in it because a win from their last game could be enough to take them through, but they should not renegade to attack as did Czech Republic, because Spain will create enough chances to score one. The Spanish were, if anything, wasteful and if they correct that aspect, they should get a comfortable win, as Turkey’s defense faces the worst matchup for their characteristics.

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

SPAIN 2-0 TURKEY

Matchday 3 - Germany dominant, Croatia and Poland show promise

0-1

Headlines

TURKEY

·         The Player – Arda Turan

Clearly accusing the lack of football in the beginning of the season, Arda Turan started on the left side and was never able to leave that side, as he had a lot to worry in Dario Srna. In the attack, he never could make an impact, looking sluggish and out of form. A worry, Turan needs to improve if Turkey has any hope of qualification
 
 

·         The Moment – Çalhanoglu’s free kicks

With the Leverkusen’s playmaker ability for dead ball, this should’ve been one the ways for Turkey to create danger, and they were just wasted. Maybe due to some big stage freight, Çalhanoglu created little to no danger in those situations and just had a bad display in general.

·         The Team

 If felt that Terim’s team could’ve done better with Yilmaz playing from the beginning, with his experience and physicality being a good way to try and break down the fighting duo of Corluka and Vida. Turkey looked always the weaker side, never being able to control possession like they are used to, and need to improve considerably for the next two games.  



 

CROATIA

·         The Player – Marcelo Brozović

 Wasn’t the best player on the pitch, but the Inter Milan man was a real threat from the left side, enjoying tons of space left in the back of his direct opponent. With pace, good ball control, he needed more composure to finish one of those chances he had. If he can improve that side of his game, Croatia became ferocious.

·         The Moment- Modric’s strike

 It was the only goal of the game, and what a goal it was. After a badly dealt cross, Luka Modric saw the ball bouncing ahead of him and summoned up all the strengths in his right foot to beat Volkan. A great shot to decide a game that Croatia controlled.

·         The Team

Great game for Croatia to shut the voices that stated they don’t deal well with the big stage. Controlling, strong, always comfortable in possession and creating chance, after chance. It was a very similar game to the one England had, with the bonus of not being stunned in the end.

 Badelj was chosen, moving Brozovic to the right where he proved he can be an influence and another source of danger for the Croats.

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- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Croatia fully deserved the win in Paris, after a fantastic display of control, strength and desire. With Modric being an inspiration, defending and attacking with the same quality, Cacic’s team started cracking Turkey by occupying the spaces between the full back and the center back from that side. Perisic and Brozovic were great in that aspect, with Srna using the space in front of him, with Rakitic playing mainly through the center.
 Turkey never had a grip on the game, Turan had troubles with Srna, Çalhanoglu had bad decisions all day and Tosun was deployed ahead of Yilmaz with no effect showing.
 In a tight group, Turkey will be happy to only having conceding one goal, when they saw the ball hit Volkan’s post twice more, and allowed so many chance. If they get back some offensive mojo they can hope. Croatia did their job and will be confident going forward

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1-0

Headlines

POLAND

·         The Player – Arkadiuz Milik

Great game from the Ajax striker. In a match that required him to be active, as Lewandowski was engulfed by Evans’ individual marking, Milik was brilliant charging forward, creating chances for his teammates and missing a couple in the 1^st half before redeeming himself with the winner in the 51th minute.
 
 

·         The Moment – The goal that made the difference

 It was a great ball from Krichowiak that opened up the defense. Kuba, on the right wing, saw Lewandowski drowning in green, but just outside the area was Milik, that got the ball, adjusted and banged it into the net for a very important win.

·         The Team

  In a match where it was known from the beginning that Lewandowski would be the target of special attention, Nawalka decided not to risk Grosicki, that came of injured, and instead threw Kapustka on the spotlight. The Legia Warsaw player, and our choice for Poland’s breakout star, did a fantastic game, alongside Milik, cracking the Nor.Ireland defense open several times, and winning the opening match of the Euro, for the first time in Poland history.
 The expected win, maybe with less goals than expected, but enough.



 

NOR.IRELAND

·         The Player – Jonny Evans

  Did his job very well, in charge of marking Lewandowski. He never let go of the Bayern striker, always putting in an extra tackle or push, while frustrating his opponent. The biggest complement he can have is that Lewa had no chance to influence the game.

·         The Moment- Lafferty’s creation

 In a very hard match for him, mostly left alone until Poland scored, Lafferty barely touched the ball, let alone had chances to do any danger. It was like, if he wanted to score, he would have to do everything, create and shoot. And so, after a ball pumped into him, he teed up a bicycle kick that was well executed but not so dangerous. A perfect image of how hard it was for the northern Irish to create chances.  

·         The Team

 Very weak showing, with a lot of man in the back, and never able to go out and create some chances for goal. Nor.Ireland never seemed to be able to create any danger near the Polish penalty area and with Nawalka’s team making a great effort in avoiding giving them any set pieces, the northern Irish never had a chance.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Poland was always going to win the game if they were able to score a goal. When Milik found yards of space just outside the box, in the 51th minute, he striked it with precision, like he wasn’t able to do in the first half. With Lewandowski alone in a sea of green, it was up to Milik and the wingers, Kuba and Kapustka, to find the big man and with little changes of the ball, face the goal and test Michael McGovern.

 Northern Ireland defended a lot, not particularly well in truth, and was completely unable to create any sort of danger. Lafferty was alone for a long time, never had a chance to score, and even dead ball situations were lacking.

 Adan Nawalka will be happy with the match, probably just wishing he would’ve scored more goals, as it feels that Nor.Ireland might have the same troubles with the other opponents, and those results can determine the final table of Group C. 

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2-0

Headlines

GERMANY

·         The Player – Toni Kroos

 Dominant play in the midfield by the Real Madrid midfielder. Toni Kroos made the assist for Hector’s goal and he created the flow of Germany’s game, with the usual skill in passing, both short and long. His influence declined when Ukraine started correcting the timings of pressure and marking, but he was the most consistent German in the pitch.
 
 

·         The Moment – Defensive set pieces

 A constant source of worry for Joachim Low, it threatens to thwart Germany’s chances if it’s not corrected in time for the knockout stages. Germany has a relatively low defensive line, more evident with Hummels out injured, and Ukraine created a lot of dangerous situations, that a more prolific team would’ve, likely, capitalize on.

·         The Team

  Germany didn’t have the best of games, but they did the job and ended up with three points, matching Poland on top of the group. The World Champions started very strong, clearly looking for an opening that would lead to an early goal, so they could draw Ukraine out.
 The defensive side was a worry, allowing Ukraine’s confidence to grow and endanger a win that should’ve been guaranteed earlier.



 

UKRAINE

·         The Player – Andriy Iarmolenko

 Completely out of the game, only showed his skills once, when he found his fellow winger Konoplyanka alone by the six-yard box. Apart from that moment it was a complete lack of ideas from both wings, with Iarmolenko being the worst of the two with very few touches on the ball and adding nothing noteworthy.    

·         The Moment- Konoplyanka fluffes it

    It was a rare moment of brilliance from Iarmolenko, and Konoplyanka just had to wrap his foot around the ball and beat Neuer. Everyone will remember the great acrobatic clearance from Boateng, but the Sevilla winger completely missed the shot, and the opportunity to draw the game.

·         The Team

  It took them half an hour to correct the markings, and when they did it they were already losing. They had a good spell in the first half, reacting well and creating danger from corners and missing that great chance from Konoplyanka. Unfortunately they ran out of gas in the 2^nd half, and ended up conceding the second goal right at the end

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

  Effective but without brilliance, could be a title for the game Germany produce in Lille. The start gave us the idea that the friendlies were just friendlies, and Germany would make it count when it matters. They did, materializing their dominance with a good goal from Mustafi, after an assist from Kroos.
 The Real Madrid player was the man of the match, always demanding the ball to make things happen for a Germany that lacked a bigger physical presence in the middle of the center backs. Gotze is a great player, but is not a center forward in any shape or form and it showed.
 Ukraine had a mediocre game, creating some chances due to the defensive set pieces troubles Low’s squad faced throughout the whole match but never capitalizing, and uninspired in open play. With a bit more killer instinct it could’ve been a different story.

 Germany know that the same kind of mistakes against Poland will be fatal, but have enjoyed a routine win and are gaining confidence back. Ukraine will face a crucial match with Northern Ireland to keep qualification hopes alive. 

Turkey vs Croatia - preview

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- Latest events

TURKEY

·         It’s been an upward trajectory for Fatih Terim’s squad, the road to France. After an embarrassing start of the qualification stage, they were able to sneak through to this group stage, and they arrive with 4 wins in 5 games – only lost at England – in 2016.

·         Confidence is at a high and the game against Croatia couldn’t have come in better time  

·         In a very tight group any win can make a difference, and the Turkish are ready to get it.

CROATIA

·         It was very surprising to see Lovren out of the squad for the Euro, but Schildenfeld and Corluka are ready to step in, and make sure no one remembers the Liverpool man.  

·         Perisic, Modric and Rakitic form the trio that will have the task of serving Mario Mandzukic, and this a quartet that, when in form, can make any team tremble with fear.   

·         Ante Cacic’s team will have to keep tracking back when they lose the ball, though, as that is one of Croatia’s main problems, too many bodies committed forward, and not enough recovery when losing possession.  

- Expected Lineups

 

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- Areas to follow

TURKEY

·         Defense

It’s always been the same problem for Turkey. A big and strong defense, but slow and very frail when facing quick opponents. We could state that this is a good matchup for the Turks, as Croatia is a team that likes to have the ball, and Mandzukic is of the same stature of the Turkey’s defense.

·         Midfield

With Selçuk Inan and Tufan being the more holding midfielders, it’s up to the three in from of them to create dangerous situations that can panic Croatia’s defense. Turan, Çalhanoglu and Sen will move constantly, as all three dominate the positions, trying to find space for Yilmaz or creating it for themselves. The Leverkusen player will be in the spotlight, due to his set pieces ability.

·         Attack

Burak Yilmaz is a strong player, that can hold the ball well and get involved in his team’s attack, either creating spaces in between the opponent’s line, or carrying the ball himself. Turkey will know that they will have to be patient and wait for a chance that will, likely, come.   

             

 

CROATIA

·            Defense

Without Lovren, Croatia’s defense loses experience but Liverpool’s season was on and off making it understandable that he stayed on holiday. With Srna being more adventurous than Vida, and with Corluka being able to close down the right side, expect to see Vida-Schildenfeld-Corluka in a back 3 when Srna helps out in the attack.

·             Midfield

The importance of Brozovic will always be overlooked, when is area teammates are the likes of Modric or Rakitic, but he will be the one that will give them the ball for the magicians to create. With Perisic playing in both wings with ease, and Rakitic floating between the center-right, Croatia has a dynamic football that can be very enjoyable to watch.  

·             Attack

Mandzukic will face a big game against Turkey, as he’s not used to not be the strongest man in there, but he thrives under it. Mandzukic loves a good duel and he’ll be happy to move away from the center backs to give a little touch and open up space for his teammates to come forward and help him out creating danger.   

- FIL’S VERDICT

 Unpredictable. One of those games that just isn’t possible to say what is likely to happen, because both teams are so evenly matched up that will always depend on which player is in better form in the moment.

 Turkey’s trajectory till getting to France has been upwards, and they are confident they can start this very tough group with a win, while Croatia put a thrashing over San Marino, and showed they are ready to score goal.

 The opening match of this very tough group can be a very open one. It’s fair to assume that both teams will be fearing defeat, but that will not mean that they will sit back and avoid mistakes, because that would be completely out of character for both teams.

 With that in mind, we think this might be most exciting game of the competition yet, with chances and goals.

FIL’S PREDICTION


TURKEY 2-2 CROATIA