Group C analysis - Germany and Poland show force in Ukraine's meltdown

1^st Germany(=FIL’s Prediction)

 Efficient. It’s the best word to define Germany’s group stage, although that can be easily argued, as they missed a lot of the chances they created. But, if you analyze each game, you realize that in the first two games their chances were condemned to Gotze, that was the main striker for Die Maanschafft and had a terrible time at it.

 They still did four points, and with Nor.Ireland they were dominate as expected and were much more the Germany Europe would fear. And all because Low finally put a striker in that position, with Gomez having a fantastic duel with Michael McGovern.

It wasn’t the most spectacular set of games, but Germany did their job without many disruptions, as expected. It’s expected that the Gotze experience is over, and if so, Germany can start plowing through opponents once again 

2^nd Poland (=FIL’s prediction)

In a tournament that seems to be affecting some of the biggest starts, it’s expected that the other players on their teams stand up and try to help. That’s exactly what happened with Poland, as Lewandowski has been tightly marked, to an extent that made him just another number on the pitch.
 Arkadiusz Milik didn’t turn the other cheek, knew that it was expected of him to try and elevate his team, and that’s exactly what he did. In a great moment of form, the Ajax player was able to create a great number of chances, but needs to improve his finishing, as all that just resulted in a goal.

 Poland did a good set of games and is one of the dark horses of the tournament.

3^rd Nor.Ireland (>FIL’s Prediction)

 Another of the many fairytale stories of the tournament, Nor.Ireland is the most herculean of them all. A small team, formed of players that are not used to top leagues, facing three powerhouses, three teams that, in a good day, were always going to win. So the Irish needed to defend like they’ve never defended before, and try to be effective on their dead balls situations.

 Poland and Germany were, as expected, much stronger, but two great defensive showings made sure that Nor.Ireland would only lose those games by a single goal. And, in between those games, the eruption. A game that was marked with a hail thunderstorm, a game where Nor.Ireland was able to annul Ukraine, a team that was barely in France, and score two goals that, with the holding of the two strongest teams of the group, dictated that Northern Ireland would be one of the best 3^rd placed teams and the party can continue.  

4^th Ukraine (<FIL’s Prediction)

 Just a huge disappointment. They had a first game that masked most of their deficiencies, as facing Germany they were expected to lose. But even in that game, you could sense things were not going to go Ukraine’s way. In a match where the Germans were not being dangerous and were struggling in the defensive process, but with Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka completely out of form, their fate was determined.

 Much more of a shock was, obviously, the defeat against Nor.Ireland, a defeat that was deserved due to their inability to disrupt McGovern’s defense. Ukraine needed to show much more, but with that defeat they were out, and will not want to remember they ever were in France. Some will argue they weren’t. 

Group C - Final round preview

How they got here

Germany

The World Champions didn’t enthusiasm but they were efficient in their mission of getting to this stage in the first place of the group. They had troubles in creating chances, mostly due to Low’s insistence in Mario Gotze as his striker. It was especially heartbreaking seeing the small Gotze in the middle of the Polish center backs, without any hope of getting rid of them.

Poland

It was their lack of composure in front of goal, with Milik especially at fault, that impeded them of achieving first place before the last game. In both games he could’ve scored more goals than he actually did. But their consistency has been one of the good highlights of the tournament.

Nor.Ireland

They were protagonists of one of the upsets of the tournament, when they beat Ukraine and guaranteed they will, at least, get the third place. Against Poland, though, they couldn’t attack by any means, and it was worrying for them in anticipation for the rest of the competition.

Ukraine

The first team eliminated of the Euros, in an achievement that is anything short than shameful, Ukraine was a great disappointment. Two games, no goals scored and four conceded, including two against minnows Northern Ireland. Just a forgetful campaign.

What they need

Germany

Expect Germany to try and score a few goals in the second half, so they make sure they don’t risk the first place to a possible thrashing that Poland might inflict on Ukraine. Joachim Low will probably rotate his squad, giving his reserves a chance to impress against a considerably weaker team.

Poland

It’s unlikely that their second place is at risk, as Northern Ireland faces Germany, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Nawalka trying some new options, and try to win the game against Ukraine by a large margin, and try and sneak to the top.

Nor.Ireland

Third place is guaranteed so Michael O’Neill faces an interesting dilemma, as he knows that if he sits back he’ll get defeated, but he cannot lose by a big margin as goal difference might be what qualifies the 3^rd placed teams. It will be a great headache for the manager, that must be cursing the order of the games right now.

Ukraine

Its been an awful time in France, and now they face Poland, a team that’s highly motivated. With nothing to play for, maybe we’ll see the Ukrainians free of pressure and actually providing us with a good match. It’s not very predictable, but one can hope. 

Germany vs Poland - preview

VS

- Latest events

GERMANY

·         It wasn’t the best of games, but Germany ended up with a secure win, where their mistakes were not transformed into something worse

·         Focus needs to be grander, as Poland is a better team, confident, and that knows how to beat the Germans   

·         Hummels is still a doubt, and his absence might be gold for Lewandowski and Milik

POLAND

·         Adam Nawalka’s squad was brilliant against Northern Ireland, with their only problem being the amount of chances they failed to convert in goal.    

·         Lewandowski was subject to tight marking, but he will surely have more space to play against Germany, which doesn’t mean that it will be easier for him to be dangerous.      

·         Poland knows a win qualifies them, and the win in qualification makes sure that the Polish won’t just try and defend.     

- Areas to follow

GERMANY

·         Defense

Hummels has been injured, and him starting against Poland it’s a question mark that Low will answer by time the games start. The defensive side was a bit underwhelming against Ukraine, letting the opponent create good chances that, with the a better attitude or quality, could have punished Germany

·         Midfield

Kroos was a giant, and one of the main reasons for Germany’s win, as the powerful midfielder was everywhere, demanding the ball from his colleagues, and making the game flow with quality. Khedira needs to step up his game though, as Kroos can be engulfed by the Polish towers.  

·         Attack

Gotze was completely useless in that position of striker, as he has neither the size, potency, culture. Nothing really, and that translated in a shocker of a game that was saved by the two goals his team scored anyway. But this will be a problem down the line for the Germans.

             

POLAND

·            Defense

Barely tested, merit for the Polish defense as, when Nor.Ireland was approaching, they dealt with the threat fairly competently. The game against Germany will, naturally, be much harder and Pazdan and Glik need to confirm they are one of the most solid center back duos in the competition.  

·             Midfield

 Kapustka was sent to the start against Nor.Ireland and he surprised half of the world with his quality, carrying of the ball, and fantastic maturity for a 19yr old. We knew what Kapustka was able to do, but not even us in FIL thought he would be such an influence. But he has the quality, and Cracovia must be relishing a record sell.     

·             Attack

Lewandowski knows the defenders he’s going to play, better than anyone. They know him too, but Lewa knows that, unlike the first game, he won’t be the target of a super-tight h-h marking, and he will have much more space to work with Milik.     

- FIL’S VERDICT

 Germany and Poland won both their games and will now face knowing a win, or even a draw, will probably qualify them. It has the potential to be one of the best games of the group stage of this competition and surely the players won’t disappoint.

 A lot of the game will be dependent of Hummels’ physical condition, as if he plays Lewandowski and Milik will have much more trouble in creating chances. But it won’t be impossible, Kapustka is a player that can play between the lines and be creative outlet Poland needs to surprise Germany again.

 Low’s team had a secure game and will want to win, in order to prove they are ready to lift the trophy, but they face a good opposition that plays very well against the high line the Germans will use. A great game in perpective.

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

GERMANY 2-1 POLAND

Ukraine vs Nor.Ireland - preview

VS

- Latest events

UKRAINE

·         It wasn’t the best of games, but Ukraine at least knows that they already played Germany and now have to try and win the other matches.  

·         They didn’t play great, but still were dangerous for a shaky Germany’s defense   

·         Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko must do something different, as their influence in the opening match was very scarce.  

NOR.IRELAND

·         Northern Ireland didn’t have the best of games against Poland, defending a lot and barely ever able to counter and create danger for the opponents goal.    

·         This will be the game they think they can get something from, so expect Nor.Ireland to try and attack, not only sit back and waiting for the Ukrainians.    

·         If they can defend as well as against Poland, they might have a chance to surprise   

- Areas to follow

UKRAINE

·         Defense

Ukraine will relish this match, and it will all start with their defense. They need to be focused on the little chances they’ll have to deal with, and the matchup is great for them, as Nor.Ireland’s Lafferty is a big man, as big as the Ukranian defense, and Fomenko’s team feels they can annul him easily.

·         Midfield

Kovalenko was a bit off the game, but his pace and creativity was never going to be a factor against Germany, but it can and should be used in this match. Stepanenko should stay a bit behind and try to sweep any counter offensive from the British opponent.   

·         Attack

Fomenko needs that Konoplyanka and Iarmolenko step up their game, and by a mile. If these two had  been on point against Germany, you feel that Ukraine could have done so much better as the World Champions had a lot of trouble defending. Zozulya, whilst not a goalscorer, fought valiantly and should get another chance

             

NOR.IRELAND

·            Defense

Michael O’Neill should keep faith in their trio of center backs, on a five-man defensive line designed to stop, by any means, the opponents’ offensive. They worked very hard and almost did their bidding against Poland, but this time there’s no Lewandowski, so they have to believe they can do even better.   

·             Midfield

 McNair and Norwood did a good job until the goal conceded, and will have the same mission of standing in front of their defense and try to stop the Ukrainian construction of play while also, try to locate the big man Lafferty.   

·             Attack

Lafferty was upset after the match against Ukraine, and he called out some of his teammates, stating that they need to improve if Nor.Ireland wants to dare to dream. Him himself wasn’t brilliant, but he did fight a lot and alone, and it feels that’s what he meant, that he needs someone to help him upfront.    

- FIL’S VERDICT

 Ukraine should and needs to win. It’s the “easy” game and they need to repeat what Poland did, so they have a decisive clash in the final matchday. The game against Germany will be remember by the final score, which is understandable, but if you think back about the match, the Ukrainians had many chances to create danger, and needed their big names to step up, not down.

 Nor.Ireland will deploy the same strategy that frustrated Poland to an almost no-turning point, and they know that Ukraine doesn’t have a Bayern Munich striker in their squad. If they are able to cut down the inside movements of Ukraine’s wingers. After a disappointing start, both teams know that a loss means going home, so both will have the goal on their mind.

 

FIL’S PREDICTION

UKRAINE 2-1 NOR.IRELAND

Matchday 3 - Germany dominant, Croatia and Poland show promise

0-1

Headlines

TURKEY

·         The Player – Arda Turan

Clearly accusing the lack of football in the beginning of the season, Arda Turan started on the left side and was never able to leave that side, as he had a lot to worry in Dario Srna. In the attack, he never could make an impact, looking sluggish and out of form. A worry, Turan needs to improve if Turkey has any hope of qualification
 
 

·         The Moment – Çalhanoglu’s free kicks

With the Leverkusen’s playmaker ability for dead ball, this should’ve been one the ways for Turkey to create danger, and they were just wasted. Maybe due to some big stage freight, Çalhanoglu created little to no danger in those situations and just had a bad display in general.

·         The Team

 If felt that Terim’s team could’ve done better with Yilmaz playing from the beginning, with his experience and physicality being a good way to try and break down the fighting duo of Corluka and Vida. Turkey looked always the weaker side, never being able to control possession like they are used to, and need to improve considerably for the next two games.  



 

CROATIA

·         The Player – Marcelo Brozović

 Wasn’t the best player on the pitch, but the Inter Milan man was a real threat from the left side, enjoying tons of space left in the back of his direct opponent. With pace, good ball control, he needed more composure to finish one of those chances he had. If he can improve that side of his game, Croatia became ferocious.

·         The Moment- Modric’s strike

 It was the only goal of the game, and what a goal it was. After a badly dealt cross, Luka Modric saw the ball bouncing ahead of him and summoned up all the strengths in his right foot to beat Volkan. A great shot to decide a game that Croatia controlled.

·         The Team

Great game for Croatia to shut the voices that stated they don’t deal well with the big stage. Controlling, strong, always comfortable in possession and creating chance, after chance. It was a very similar game to the one England had, with the bonus of not being stunned in the end.

 Badelj was chosen, moving Brozovic to the right where he proved he can be an influence and another source of danger for the Croats.

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- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Croatia fully deserved the win in Paris, after a fantastic display of control, strength and desire. With Modric being an inspiration, defending and attacking with the same quality, Cacic’s team started cracking Turkey by occupying the spaces between the full back and the center back from that side. Perisic and Brozovic were great in that aspect, with Srna using the space in front of him, with Rakitic playing mainly through the center.
 Turkey never had a grip on the game, Turan had troubles with Srna, Çalhanoglu had bad decisions all day and Tosun was deployed ahead of Yilmaz with no effect showing.
 In a tight group, Turkey will be happy to only having conceding one goal, when they saw the ball hit Volkan’s post twice more, and allowed so many chance. If they get back some offensive mojo they can hope. Croatia did their job and will be confident going forward

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1-0

Headlines

POLAND

·         The Player – Arkadiuz Milik

Great game from the Ajax striker. In a match that required him to be active, as Lewandowski was engulfed by Evans’ individual marking, Milik was brilliant charging forward, creating chances for his teammates and missing a couple in the 1^st half before redeeming himself with the winner in the 51th minute.
 
 

·         The Moment – The goal that made the difference

 It was a great ball from Krichowiak that opened up the defense. Kuba, on the right wing, saw Lewandowski drowning in green, but just outside the area was Milik, that got the ball, adjusted and banged it into the net for a very important win.

·         The Team

  In a match where it was known from the beginning that Lewandowski would be the target of special attention, Nawalka decided not to risk Grosicki, that came of injured, and instead threw Kapustka on the spotlight. The Legia Warsaw player, and our choice for Poland’s breakout star, did a fantastic game, alongside Milik, cracking the Nor.Ireland defense open several times, and winning the opening match of the Euro, for the first time in Poland history.
 The expected win, maybe with less goals than expected, but enough.



 

NOR.IRELAND

·         The Player – Jonny Evans

  Did his job very well, in charge of marking Lewandowski. He never let go of the Bayern striker, always putting in an extra tackle or push, while frustrating his opponent. The biggest complement he can have is that Lewa had no chance to influence the game.

·         The Moment- Lafferty’s creation

 In a very hard match for him, mostly left alone until Poland scored, Lafferty barely touched the ball, let alone had chances to do any danger. It was like, if he wanted to score, he would have to do everything, create and shoot. And so, after a ball pumped into him, he teed up a bicycle kick that was well executed but not so dangerous. A perfect image of how hard it was for the northern Irish to create chances.  

·         The Team

 Very weak showing, with a lot of man in the back, and never able to go out and create some chances for goal. Nor.Ireland never seemed to be able to create any danger near the Polish penalty area and with Nawalka’s team making a great effort in avoiding giving them any set pieces, the northern Irish never had a chance.

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

Poland was always going to win the game if they were able to score a goal. When Milik found yards of space just outside the box, in the 51th minute, he striked it with precision, like he wasn’t able to do in the first half. With Lewandowski alone in a sea of green, it was up to Milik and the wingers, Kuba and Kapustka, to find the big man and with little changes of the ball, face the goal and test Michael McGovern.

 Northern Ireland defended a lot, not particularly well in truth, and was completely unable to create any sort of danger. Lafferty was alone for a long time, never had a chance to score, and even dead ball situations were lacking.

 Adan Nawalka will be happy with the match, probably just wishing he would’ve scored more goals, as it feels that Nor.Ireland might have the same troubles with the other opponents, and those results can determine the final table of Group C. 

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2-0

Headlines

GERMANY

·         The Player – Toni Kroos

 Dominant play in the midfield by the Real Madrid midfielder. Toni Kroos made the assist for Hector’s goal and he created the flow of Germany’s game, with the usual skill in passing, both short and long. His influence declined when Ukraine started correcting the timings of pressure and marking, but he was the most consistent German in the pitch.
 
 

·         The Moment – Defensive set pieces

 A constant source of worry for Joachim Low, it threatens to thwart Germany’s chances if it’s not corrected in time for the knockout stages. Germany has a relatively low defensive line, more evident with Hummels out injured, and Ukraine created a lot of dangerous situations, that a more prolific team would’ve, likely, capitalize on.

·         The Team

  Germany didn’t have the best of games, but they did the job and ended up with three points, matching Poland on top of the group. The World Champions started very strong, clearly looking for an opening that would lead to an early goal, so they could draw Ukraine out.
 The defensive side was a worry, allowing Ukraine’s confidence to grow and endanger a win that should’ve been guaranteed earlier.



 

UKRAINE

·         The Player – Andriy Iarmolenko

 Completely out of the game, only showed his skills once, when he found his fellow winger Konoplyanka alone by the six-yard box. Apart from that moment it was a complete lack of ideas from both wings, with Iarmolenko being the worst of the two with very few touches on the ball and adding nothing noteworthy.    

·         The Moment- Konoplyanka fluffes it

    It was a rare moment of brilliance from Iarmolenko, and Konoplyanka just had to wrap his foot around the ball and beat Neuer. Everyone will remember the great acrobatic clearance from Boateng, but the Sevilla winger completely missed the shot, and the opportunity to draw the game.

·         The Team

  It took them half an hour to correct the markings, and when they did it they were already losing. They had a good spell in the first half, reacting well and creating danger from corners and missing that great chance from Konoplyanka. Unfortunately they ran out of gas in the 2^nd half, and ended up conceding the second goal right at the end

- FIL’S FINAL THOUGHTS

  Effective but without brilliance, could be a title for the game Germany produce in Lille. The start gave us the idea that the friendlies were just friendlies, and Germany would make it count when it matters. They did, materializing their dominance with a good goal from Mustafi, after an assist from Kroos.
 The Real Madrid player was the man of the match, always demanding the ball to make things happen for a Germany that lacked a bigger physical presence in the middle of the center backs. Gotze is a great player, but is not a center forward in any shape or form and it showed.
 Ukraine had a mediocre game, creating some chances due to the defensive set pieces troubles Low’s squad faced throughout the whole match but never capitalizing, and uninspired in open play. With a bit more killer instinct it could’ve been a different story.

 Germany know that the same kind of mistakes against Poland will be fatal, but have enjoyed a routine win and are gaining confidence back. Ukraine will face a crucial match with Northern Ireland to keep qualification hopes alive.