Thursday, 30 June 2016

Poland vs Portugal - Quarter-Final preview




VS






Poland

 Lewandowski and Milik suffered heavy knocks in the epic battle against Switzerland, and they were considerably out of their best game in that game. While they were fit, Poland dominated their opponent, created chances, and could’ve scored more goals in a first half that showed us what Nawalka team can be. A force in the front, very hard to stop with their power and speed in the wings, provided by Grosicki and Blaszczykowski and that still hasn’t been fully awaken, as Lewandowski still hasn’t started his goal tally.
 To counter-balance the lack of offensive prowess, Nawalka was able to solidify the Polish’s defensive quality, a problem that had limited them in the pass. But with Krychowiak just ahead of the strong duo of Glik and Pazdan, it’s hard to beat them through the air and in pace.
 Poland has been one of the most solid teams in the tournament, as proven by the fact that it took a Shaqiri wonder goal to finally see the Poles concede in France, having shut down Germany in the group stage in a game they could’ve won. Their main focus in qualification was their attack though, and we’re yet to see all the sectors of team perform at the same time. The time is now.


Portugal

It wasn’t easy, rather a bumpy road, for Portugal to get to the quarter-final stage. Inserted in group F, widely renowned as the least star studded of the competition, Portugal had the chance, and some said the obligation, of coming out of the group strong and in first place.
 Fernando Santos had a problem and he tried to found a solution. The lack of quality strikers in his national pool, allied to the goal machine that Ronaldo can be, determined that former Greece manager opted for changing Portugal’s natural system from a 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2. But a very unorthodox system, where the two strikers are normally wingers by nature, they open up the defense with runs and behind and open space for the likes of João Mario or Renato Sanches to be the second line of danger.
 Santos’ changes go much deeper than the players he employs and how they organize on the pitch, though. What really needed a change, and it seems is coming, was the mentality and cold blood, necessary to survive a competition like this. Portugal was always a team that wanted the ball, wanted to create danger and make the crowd gasp in enthusiasm. A very liked team, with good players, that never won anything. But Santos is trying to change that. Forget being liked, forget attacking without criteria, just for the sake of it. Now Portugal doesn’t mind, even thrives, on giving the possession away and playing in a counter-attack style, that fits best the skills of Ronaldo, Nani or Quaresma.
 Their win against Croatia was a bit overshadowed by the lack of chances, but it was pretty clear that the Croats didn’t create anything because of the web in the midfield that Santos arranged to stop Modric and Rakitic. Adrien Silva was absolutely essential in that, with William also gaining his spot.

The game

Both teams arrive in Marseille coming off very hard fought wins, but can take away the positive of their opponent being the other team that played an extra-time and won, meaning there’s no team more tired than the other.
 It’s an historic opportunity for both this countries, not only to get to a semi-final, a place there are not that used to, but with their side of the draw being accessible, you’d feel both Poland and Portugal are strong enough to get to Paris and play the final.
 But for that to happen, one of them will go out today. The pace of the match will be decided by Nawalka’s strategy in the beginning, because it’s expected that Fernando Santos will bet on the same team that engulfed Croatia in their web, didn’t allow their stars to shine, and got a very scrappy win. Poland on the other hand, ended the game defending, something they don’t like, and with Lewandowski and Milik both suffering from knocks, it’s hard to say how fit they are for this match.

 If the striking force that Nawalka has in his hand is back on form, then Poland will probably take the steer of the game, try to dominate while Portugal sits back and counters with their quickness and wit, with Ronaldo needing to show a bit more of himself. Adrien Silva was a great part of the win in the last-16 and he will have the mission to block the Polish creativity, mainly Krychowiak.

Both defenses have been very solid, and both attacks less prolific than they should, but still enough to be in this stage, and for one of them, enough to get to the semis. It’s unlikely that the managers will change much of their teams, so expect a game where teams will be afraid to concede first, will be mostly playing safe. It will be required that the stars of both sides step up their game, and it feels like Portugal has been a bit better on that particular item. And with that in mind, we feel that Portugal is the slight favorite, but Poland will dominate possession. There will be few goals in this match, especially if there’s no early goal to open play up, and Portugal's bigger experience can be a decisive factor. Poland needs their goalscoring machine back, or their chances will be tarnished. 

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