Thursday, 30 June 2016

Poland vs Portugal - Quarter-Final preview




VS






Poland

 Lewandowski and Milik suffered heavy knocks in the epic battle against Switzerland, and they were considerably out of their best game in that game. While they were fit, Poland dominated their opponent, created chances, and could’ve scored more goals in a first half that showed us what Nawalka team can be. A force in the front, very hard to stop with their power and speed in the wings, provided by Grosicki and Blaszczykowski and that still hasn’t been fully awaken, as Lewandowski still hasn’t started his goal tally.
 To counter-balance the lack of offensive prowess, Nawalka was able to solidify the Polish’s defensive quality, a problem that had limited them in the pass. But with Krychowiak just ahead of the strong duo of Glik and Pazdan, it’s hard to beat them through the air and in pace.
 Poland has been one of the most solid teams in the tournament, as proven by the fact that it took a Shaqiri wonder goal to finally see the Poles concede in France, having shut down Germany in the group stage in a game they could’ve won. Their main focus in qualification was their attack though, and we’re yet to see all the sectors of team perform at the same time. The time is now.


Portugal

It wasn’t easy, rather a bumpy road, for Portugal to get to the quarter-final stage. Inserted in group F, widely renowned as the least star studded of the competition, Portugal had the chance, and some said the obligation, of coming out of the group strong and in first place.
 Fernando Santos had a problem and he tried to found a solution. The lack of quality strikers in his national pool, allied to the goal machine that Ronaldo can be, determined that former Greece manager opted for changing Portugal’s natural system from a 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2. But a very unorthodox system, where the two strikers are normally wingers by nature, they open up the defense with runs and behind and open space for the likes of João Mario or Renato Sanches to be the second line of danger.
 Santos’ changes go much deeper than the players he employs and how they organize on the pitch, though. What really needed a change, and it seems is coming, was the mentality and cold blood, necessary to survive a competition like this. Portugal was always a team that wanted the ball, wanted to create danger and make the crowd gasp in enthusiasm. A very liked team, with good players, that never won anything. But Santos is trying to change that. Forget being liked, forget attacking without criteria, just for the sake of it. Now Portugal doesn’t mind, even thrives, on giving the possession away and playing in a counter-attack style, that fits best the skills of Ronaldo, Nani or Quaresma.
 Their win against Croatia was a bit overshadowed by the lack of chances, but it was pretty clear that the Croats didn’t create anything because of the web in the midfield that Santos arranged to stop Modric and Rakitic. Adrien Silva was absolutely essential in that, with William also gaining his spot.

The game

Both teams arrive in Marseille coming off very hard fought wins, but can take away the positive of their opponent being the other team that played an extra-time and won, meaning there’s no team more tired than the other.
 It’s an historic opportunity for both this countries, not only to get to a semi-final, a place there are not that used to, but with their side of the draw being accessible, you’d feel both Poland and Portugal are strong enough to get to Paris and play the final.
 But for that to happen, one of them will go out today. The pace of the match will be decided by Nawalka’s strategy in the beginning, because it’s expected that Fernando Santos will bet on the same team that engulfed Croatia in their web, didn’t allow their stars to shine, and got a very scrappy win. Poland on the other hand, ended the game defending, something they don’t like, and with Lewandowski and Milik both suffering from knocks, it’s hard to say how fit they are for this match.

 If the striking force that Nawalka has in his hand is back on form, then Poland will probably take the steer of the game, try to dominate while Portugal sits back and counters with their quickness and wit, with Ronaldo needing to show a bit more of himself. Adrien Silva was a great part of the win in the last-16 and he will have the mission to block the Polish creativity, mainly Krychowiak.

Both defenses have been very solid, and both attacks less prolific than they should, but still enough to be in this stage, and for one of them, enough to get to the semis. It’s unlikely that the managers will change much of their teams, so expect a game where teams will be afraid to concede first, will be mostly playing safe. It will be required that the stars of both sides step up their game, and it feels like Portugal has been a bit better on that particular item. And with that in mind, we feel that Portugal is the slight favorite, but Poland will dominate possession. There will be few goals in this match, especially if there’s no early goal to open play up, and Portugal's bigger experience can be a decisive factor. Poland needs their goalscoring machine back, or their chances will be tarnished. 

Monday, 27 June 2016

England vs Iceland - Last-16 Round preview





VS





The ultimate underdog story, a nation of 323.000 people, with 10% of them in France supporting their national team that made country history in just qualifying. Iceland is a squad with very tall, strong players and this generation and next to come are enjoying an upgrade of the facilities that is start to show. They no longer are unfamiliar to controlling the ball, and they defend with all their heart, achieving an incredible qualification to the knockout stage.
 England must be happy but with suspicious of Iceland. Hodgson’s squad is the clear favorite for the game, but that also brings added pressure, built up with the average performance in the group stage, especially in the finishing side of the games.

 It’s a game where you can expect England to have the control of the ball and Iceland trying to defend and break when they can, always with few man to avoid disorganizing their backline. For England is going to be a frustrating game, much like it was against Slovakia, and the players must be focused to not let the frustration affect their game. If they can avoid it England, should, get through and book a place to face France.






FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

England 80%-20% Iceland

Italy vs Spain - Last-16 Round preview




VS




Two contrasting performances in the group stage made possible the replay of the Euro 2012 final in the Last 16 in France. Back in Kiev, it was a mauling from Spain, absolutely dismantling a team led by Balotelli and Pirlo. A lot has change in the Squadra Azzura, both Balo and Pirlo are not in the squad, and Conte has in his team a group of players that are aware that they are out looked by everyone, but with the next Chelsea manager applying his quality methods, he formed a team that defends as well as their predecessors, and with an interesting partnership formed by Eder and Pellé, they are the perfect duo for the countering style that Italy and Conte used to surprise Belgium and top the group.
 Unfortunately, the reward for the Italians was to face the reigning champions Spain. After the two expected wins in the first two matches - against Czech Republic and Turkey - where Del Bosque’s squad took a while, but eventually found a way to score goals, with Morata claiming the spot of striker, it seemed that Spain would top group D, with authority and ready to face a 3rd placed team.
 Instead, in a match they only needed a draw, Spain completely feel asleep on its own game, after scoring a very early goal. And that allowed Croatia to grow in confidence and eventually turn it around to grab the win and, more importantly, the first place. Spain showed again its difficulties in set pieces and Italy will prove a very tough opponent to beat. The Spanish backline has been questioned, and they will have to keep focus if they want to help their team progress.

 A (very) anticipated final, one of this great nations will go home, and surely they will want to gives us something to remember to avoid that happening.









FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Italy 45%-55% Spain

Sunday, 26 June 2016

Hungary vs Belgium - Last-16 round preview






VS





Another match that wouldn’t be present in the wildest predictions for the last-16 grid, especially with the added fact that Hungary was first on their group.
 It was a dream that is still happening for the Magyars, almost incarnating the spirit of Puskas’ generation. They were regarded as the certain last in a group that didn’t really have a clear favorite, and Storck, aware of his team’s limitations, prepared them to give everything they have defending their goal, whilst trying to go out and search for a goal. The strategy worked perfectly for the opening match against Austria, where Hungary collected a massive win, that motivated them to go all the way and upsetting Portugal to a very hard-fought and emotional 3-3 draw. They will have to give another go at an upset against Belgium and they are surely up to it.

 Wilmots’ team arrives at the knockout stage on a high note, after the disastrous defeat with Italy, that made them work harder for qualification, but that also made the quality of the Belgium offense come out, especially against Ireland, team they dismantled. They face a good match up for them, as Hungary will be happy to defend for long periods, so it’s key that the back line keeps focus, especially in set pieces. But with their offensive prowess, Belgium faces a good test to make their candidature official.








FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Hungary 15%-85% Belgium 

Germany vs Slovakia - Last-16 round preview





                             
                               VS





The World Champions arrived in France in a sea of doubt, the results and the exhibitions prior to the competition were not adequate for their status and Low’s choices were being questioned. And then, even though Gotze as striker needed to be corrected during the group stage, Germany arrived to the actual games and did what it does best, dominate and win. They failed to score against Poland, and that was the trick for Goméz to regain his position.

 Slovakia had an irregular campaign so far, but they played fairly well in the first two games, they were on top of Wales for the most part of the game, but with Hamsik not performing well enough, they ended up putting pressure on themselves, pressure that they relished on, dismantling Russia and frustrating England to a draw that ended up with them qualified.

Germany and Slovakia actually met in May, with the Hamsik’s team obtaining an historic victory, but that game was exactly the wake up call that Germany needed, and they will be much readier to face Slovakia this time.







FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Germany 70%-30% Slovakia

France vs Rep. Ireland - Last-16 round preview





                  VS




The hosts are one of the strongest teams in the competition, so it was surprising to see France’s difficulties in breaking down the defenses of Romania, Albania and Switzerland. But it’s hard to say that France did not do their bidding, they created a lot of chances and had in Payet one of the best players of the tournament so far.
 The competition will only, really, start now for Deschamps’ team, as it’s now that their defense will finally be tested, with teams now obliged to try and attack to progress. It will be the final test for France’s title candidacy, with Koscielny and Rami being under a particular demanding look, as they were not the first – or second, or third – choice for center backs.
 Ireland got here with a fantastic win against Italy, after two games where they showed their limitations, with the Belgium match being particularly bad for the Irish, making Roy Keane react in his priceless style of communication. They will have to summon up their former captain spirit, if they have any hopes of defeating the hosts.

 In a side note, if anything, this will probably be the best match in the stands, with the hosts meeting their best visitors.







FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

France 75%-25% Rep.Ireland

Saturday, 25 June 2016

Croatia vs Portugal Last-16 round preview






VS








It was a very unlikely match to happen, but Croatia’s proof of force and Portugal’s inability to win – or lose, for that matter – any game lead us to one of the headlines of the last 16 round. Two strong candidates to dark horses status, only the Croats confirmed they are ready to try and go all the way, 18 years after their historic campaign in the World Cup in this very same France. Inserted in a group that required full concentration from kickoff, Croatia’s midfield talent emerged, with Modric, Rakitic, Perisic being top quality players that destroyed the teams they faced in the group stage. They lost focus after their fans disrupted the game against Czech Republic, but responded fantastically against Spain, even with Cacic changing his squad. It was that win that confirmed Croatia is a strong candidate to be in the final.

 Portugal has just be disappointing. There’s very few things to motivate them after the three shockers of matches – all for different reasons – they had, but maybe the fact they haven’t lost, and that Ronaldo seems to be regaining confidence. And that is what gives Portugal some chances of qualifying. Because Ronaldo can, almost alone, win a game. Even against Hungary, with both Dzusdszak’s goals being deflected, you could argue that the Real Madrid’s goals should’ve been enough.

 It will all depend how well Modric recovered from the injury, and how the Croatian midfield will be on the day. They have the quality to dominate Portugal, but they will have to be quick on the ball, and they will have a very different match from the Spain one. Because this Portugal team, in the way its set up, will gladly give up possession so they can unleash quick counters, with Ronaldo throttling them forward. With all the quality in the players involved, this promises to be one of the best matches of this round, and we hope it lives to that expectation.  








FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Croatia 60%%-40% Portugal

Wales vs Nor. Ireland - Last-16 round preview





VS








It’s like all the stars aligned to make this the fairytale game that everyone is curious to see unfold. A game between two teams that started qualification for France in hopes that, maybe, they sneak through to a big competition, after decades of absence. They both did fantastically and got to the group stage with a clear thought to try to win a game and qualify, but it would be a herculean task.

 Wales was one of the highlights of the tournament, with Coleman setting up a very organized team where, although there’s a clearly better player than the rest, there is absolutely no space for egos, and Bale accepts his role as a team player with naturalism. Ashley Williams commands the backline, with 3 center backs and 2 wing backs that do not stop of thinking of going forward, as proved by Taylor’s goal against Russia. That was the match that confirmed that Wales would win the group, confirming three great exhibitions, where only a very late and desperate goal from Sturridge defeated them.
 Nor. Ireland’s way to the knockout stage was much more troubled, but that was to be expected, as they were included in a very strong group, where everyone thought that they would get destroyed three times and go home.
 They had to endure a lot of pressure in the course of the matches, but O’Neill’s man showed a great ability to soak up Poland and Ukraine’s attacking attempts and counting on Michael McGovern to hold Germany to a single goal. Nor. Ireland could only really try and attack against the Ukrainians, and they were rewarded with two goals and a place in the knockout thanks to it.

 Wales and Bale are looking at this tournament with great expectation. They looked like a contender, a dark horse, with a strong defense and with a great team unity, they will be very hard to defeat, and it’s very unlikely that it will be Nor. Ireland that will do that. It will be interesting, though, to see how Wales reacts to being the favorite, new experience for them in the competition. 






FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Wales 85%-15% Nor.Ireland 

Switzerland vs Poland - Last-16 round preview





VS









The knockout stage opens up with a match that can steal the show, provided both teams are at their best. Switzerland and Poland got the place they expected, and surely got themselves ready for this match, a match where two different styles will collide and give us an entertaining beginning for the real competition.

 Poland has been talked as a potential dark horse for the competition, and you can understand why, as they are a very solid team full of experienced players, and with a world class striker that can hit you in any shape or form. And reducing Poland’s attacking prowess to Lewandowski is, as proven by the group stage, a mistake, as Milik, Kapustka, Kuba and Grosicki are all competent players and have stepped up with their star being the attention of opponents’ defenses.
 Switzerland did their job, as Poland did, but in a much less emphatic way. It wouldn’t be absurd to say that their best performance was against France, and that says a lot. Switzerland is a very solid team, very competent in the defensive process and dangerous in transition, but if they are required to control possession they become predictable and sometimes, boring. Fortunate for them, they can apply their style against the Polish, so expect a good attack trying to break a good defense.
With the group stage in mind, and Switzerland fantastic inability to put the ball in the net when it needs, you’d feel that if Poland strikes first, the game will go their way. But if Switzerland can hold Nawalka’s team, they will have set pieces and counter-attacks that they can transform. An interesting point will see if Seferovic stays as the Swiss striker, when he’s clearly been out of shape.




FIL’S ODDS FOR THE GAME

Switzerland 35%-65% Poland





Friday, 24 June 2016

Group F analysis - A group of minnows, dominated by the minnows of the minnows


















1st Hungary (>FIL’s Prediction)

  Hungary came into France knowing they were looked as the weak team in a weak group. Storck was aware of his team’s limitations, set them to defend and counter against Austria, in search of, maybe, a draw to set them alive in the competition.

 Things went better than expected, with a great win that catapulted to the top of the group, place they would never give up. They had real trouble against the organized Iceland, only getting the draw in the dying minutes of the game. And in the end they gave us the most electrifying game of the competition, a positive 3-3 draw against Portugal.

 They got first place and they did much more they expected, so they have nothing to lose, and that can be their biggest force.


2nd Iceland (>FIL’s prediction)

 The biggest of the fairytales, a country that is so little that 10% of its population is in France to support this absolutely unthinkable dream. A dream they don’t want to end and their trusting their heroes to let continue, and what a job they’re doing in it.

 With a lot of players that never dreamed to be here, allied to the experience of names like Sigurdsson, Gunnarson or Sigthorssen, Iceland has a very clear game plan, and have the perfect executioners for the plan, designed by cult hero Lars Lagerback. They defend with every man, very physically, and try to counter with long balls to the two players upfront, giants that are now able to hold the ball. That’s how they surprised Portugal and got the win against Austria. The dream is alive!


3rd Portugal (<FIL’s Prediction)

 One of the teams that can be very thankful to the format of the competition, Portugal was very underwhelming during the group stage. With Ronaldo only being himself in the last match, when his team was getting desperate, Portugal is a team that seems unable to create danger when they control possession.

 They had three matches where they were the favorite, and they drew all of them, always making shots, with Ronaldo being prolific at that, but very rarely able to actually transform them in goals. Nani and Ronaldo need more help from their midfield, like it happened, finally, against Hungary. They qualified, and with Ronaldo they can win any game, but they haven’t yet, and that cannot be positive for morale.


 4th Austria (<FIL’s Prediction)

 It was the opening match that determined Austria would be a flop, more than a dark horse. And it all started so well, they were pressing, they had chances, but they faced the best Király of the competition, and were always just an inch away from the goal.
 Then, the horror. They conceded, Dragovic was sent off, and a second goal still went by Robert Almer. And the competition was that much harder now, especially with Portugal coming, also in need of a win.

 They hold Ronaldo, but then, again, weren’t able to break down an organized defense, this time in the form of Iceland, ended up losing the game, and going home, with the feeling they could’ve done much more...

Group E analysis - Italy never dies, while Zlatan said goodbye to his national team















1st Italy (>FIL’s Prediction)

They were the biggest surprise for us and it was mostly due to their great win in the opening match against Belgium, in a vintage Italy display of hard defending and efficient counter. With that win they scrambled the group up and could play their usual style against the weaker opposition.

 It the Éder late goal they guaranteed the first place of the group of death, but fate has played a trick on them, with Spain loss to Croatia dictating a clash of giants in the 2nd round.


2nd Belgium (<FIL’s prediction)

 That first match, where Wilmots did not use his usual team, was enough to determine that Belgium would not get the first place of the group, something they surely are happier about, after seeing the mess of group F.

 After a very worrying game, that showed a very boring Belgium, completely trapped in the Italian style that engulfed them and did not allow Belgium to play. That put them under pressure to both games with Ireland and Sweden, where true Belgium appeared. Their form is going up, and they have to be confident.


3rd Rep.Ireland (>FIL’s Prediction)

 The best fans in the competition deserved a reward and they got it with just five minutes to go in the group stage, when Brady jumped higher than Sirigu to give Ireland the win against Italy. That win gave Ireland four points and the third place, something that they ended up deserving. Their quality is not grand but their spirit is, and was with that they subdued Sweden for 45 minutes, and Italy for the whole match.

 They were, though, completely outdone by Belgium, showing us that this Ireland can fight, but if their opponent doesn’t back down, the Irish will struggle.


4th Sweden (<FIL’s Prediction)


 Zlatan was too alone for things to go well for Sweden. The big man is now retired from international football, and he tried to help his team to have one proper final goodbye, but the quality of his teammates was so far away from his, that Ibrahimovic felt he had to be everywhere for his team to stand a chance.

 As good as Zlatan is, he obviously couldn’t be omnipresent, and Sweden was just a big disappointment, never seeming able to go and beat any of their opponents. Something that they didn’t. It’s Zlatan’s goodbye and it seems nobody will remember he was in the Euro.